Odaily星球日报讯 Bitfinex Alpha 最新报告称，从 2022 年 11 月熊市低点 15,487 美元开始，比特币已飙升超过 573%，今年迄今其价格已上涨 130%。当前的牛市反映了强劲的机构需求，以 ETF 和现货积累为主导。历史数据表明，我们正处于周期中期，即 2024 年 4 月减半之后，市场可能会在 2025 年第三季度至第四季度左右达到顶峰，即减半后约 450 天。MVRV、NUPL 和牛熊市场周期指标等指标表明我们仍处于牛市阶段，但远未达到峰值。Pi 周期顶部和 4 年移动平均线模型预测潜在的周期顶部在 145,000 美元至 189,000 美元之间。从历史角度来看，收益递减正在缓和我们在前几个周期中看到的 BTC 爆炸性增长。

Bitfinex报告：预计本轮加密牛市将于明年Q3或Q4达到顶峰

Odaily Odaily Bitfinex Alpha&#39;s latest report said that from the bear market low of $15,487 in November 2022, Bitcoin has soared more than 573%, and its price has risen 130% so far this year. The current bull market reflects strong institutional demand, led by ETFs and spot accumulation. Historical data shows that we are in the middle of the cycle, that is, after the halving in April 2024, the market may peak around the third to fourth quarter of 2025, about 450 days after the halving. Indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, and the bull-bear market cycle indicator show that we are still in the bull market phase, but we are far from the peak. The Pi cycle top and 4-year moving average model predicts a potential cycle top between $145,000 and $189,000. From a historical perspective, diminishing returns are moderating the explosive growth of BTC that we have seen in previous cycles.

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The cryptocurrency market performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.64 trillion, with BTC accounting for 55.15%, which is $2.01 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $2.021 billion, with a 7-day increase of 2.66%, of which USDT accounts for 69.46%.
This week, the price of BTC has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price of $102,182; ETH has shown a range-bound fluctuation, with the current price of $3,934.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined, and a small portion have increased, of which: BGB has a 7-day increase of 42.07%, Baby...

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Here is the English translation:

Author: Zach·Pandl, Michael·Zhao, Grayscale Research; Compiled by: 0xjs@<Jinse Finance>
Highlights:
● From a historical perspective, cryptocurrencies have shown a clear four-year cycle, going through consecutive stages of price increases and decreases. Grayscale Research believes that investors can monitor various blockchain-based indicators and other metrics to track the crypto cycle, providing a basis for risk management decisions.
● Cryptocurrencies are evolving into a mature asset class: new Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETPs are expanding market access, and the incoming US Congress...