Grayscale: “BTC is different from past cycles… Bull market could continue until next year”

Here is the English translation, with 'BTC' retained as is: Grayscale, a cryptocurrency asset management firm and BTC ETF issuer, reported that "Historically, BTC has gone through cycles of ups and downs every 4 years. However, the current situation, with the launch of a spot BTC ETF and the entry of crypto-friendly individuals into Congress, may make this cycle different from the past. In fact, considering various indicators, this bull market could last until 2025 or beyond." The report stated, "An analysis of BTC's first cycle showed that the cycle was very short, less than a year, with a steep upward curve. The second cycle lasted 2 years, and both cases saw over 500x gains from the cycle's low. The subsequent two cycles were also within 3 years, with BTC prices rising over 100x and 20x, respectively. However, in this cycle, BTC has only risen about 6x from the low, which is significantly lower compared to the previous four cycles. Also, the MVRV mid-ratio indicator, which has historically peaked at 60% in past cycles, is currently at only 54%. Additionally, the miner capitalization (miner cap) and the revenue miners can earn from block generation, the 'thermocap' ratio, have historically peaked at 10, but are currently at only 6." Grayscale concluded, "We believe that factors such as the election of Donald Trump as US President are clearly different from past cycles. The price movement of BTC in this cycle is likely to be significantly different from the previous four cycles. The market appears to still be in the middle of a bull run."