Odaily星球日报讯 CNBC 12 月美联储调查的受访者坚信美联储将在本周降息，但他们不太确定是否应该降息。93%的人认为美联储会降息 25 个基点。但只有 63%的人认为这是美联储应该做的。受访者对 2025 年的预期是再降息两次，每次 25 个基点，低于上次调查中的三次。到明年这个时候，基金利率将降至 3.8%，到 2026 年底，基金利率将降至 3.4%，略高于平均中性利率。一个巨大的未知数是新一任政府的财政政策。调查显示，对当选总统特朗普的关税和潜在的驱逐移民出境的前景，抑制了一些人对经济的预测上行空间。经济学家 Robert Fry 表示，我从来没有对通胀前景如此不确定过。特朗普向我们提供了提高通胀（关税、减税）和降低通胀（放松管制、削减开支）的组合。谁知道我们最后会得到什么呢？（金十）

CNBC调查：93%受访者认为美联储本月降息25基点

Odaily Odaily News CNBC December Fed survey respondents are convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates this week, but they are not so sure whether it should. 93% of people think the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. But only 63% think this is what the Fed should do. Respondents expect two more rate cuts of 25 basis points for 2025, down from three in the last survey. By this time next year, the funds rate will fall to 3.8%, and by the end of 2026, the funds rate will fall to 3.4%, just above the average neutral rate. A huge unknown is the fiscal policy of the new administration. The survey shows that the prospect of tariffs and potential deportations of immigrants by President-elect Trump has suppressed some people&#39;s forecasts for the economy. Economist Robert Fry said, I have never been so uncertain about the outlook for inflation. Trump has offered us a combination of raising inflation (tariffs, tax cuts) and lowering inflation (deregulation, spending cuts). Who knows what we will get in the end? (Jinshi)

CNBC survey: 93% of respondents believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

Odaily reports that Barclays Bank expects the Federal Reserve to adopt a hawkish rate cut policy, and the bank may "open the door to suspending further rate cuts, but the duration of the (suspension of rate cuts) is uncertain". In addition, Jim Baird, Chief Investment Officer of Plante Moran Financial Advisors, said that any factor that causes the market to expect the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace to be slower than investors expect could lead to a slight downside for the stock market.

BNP Paribas: Expect the Fed to adopt a hawkish rate cut policy

Odaily reports that GCash cryptocurrency manager Luis Buenaventura said that since the market has already priced in the Fed's expected rate cut this month, the policy adjustment is unlikely to have a direct impact on cryptocurrency prices. However, according to historical data, when Bitcoin has a 50% increase within 60 days, there is about a two-thirds probability that it will see an additional 35% increase in the following two months, so the upward momentum of Bitcoin is likely to continue. Kronos Research's global business development manager Neal Wen added that in a low-interest-rate environment, institutional investors tend to view crypto assets as an alternative to traditional investments. Presto Labs research analyst Min Jung pointed out that the market's focus has shifted to the content of Fed Chairman Powell's policy speech and the latest economic forecast dot plot, which will provide important guidance for the direction of monetary policy in 2025. (Decrypt)

Viewpoint: The Fed’s interest rate cut expectations have been digested by the market in advance. Based on historical data, Bitcoin is likely to continue its upward momentum

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On December 16, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 ended its three-week rally last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% for the week, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of decline; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.34% for the week, reaching a record high of 20,000 points for the first time.

Bitcoin rose above $100,000 last week, setting the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The heat in the <Altcoin> market has cooled, with generally large pullbacks. For the week, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of <USDT> increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a continued positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has suddenly surged, breaking through the historical high to reach $106,648, and the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap have also risen by nearly 1% to 4%.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuing to hit new two-week highs, rising nearly 1% for the week, the best weekly performance in a month, while non-US currencies fell across the board for the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, ending a two-week losing streak, with US oil up more than 6% for the week and Brent oil up 4.54% for the week. Benefiting from market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose 0.56% for the week.

The most closely watched economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision and quarterly economic forecast will be announced. The market has already fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, and the real focus is on clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The market expects rate cuts next year to be more cautious and gradual, and there may even be a pause in rate cuts as early as January.

In addition, this week is also the last "Super Central Bank Week" of 2024, with as many as 25 central banks, including those of Japan, the UK and Sweden, holding policy meetings in the same week, and the release of some key central bank decisions may trigger market volatility, especially in the 24-hour non-stop foreign exchange and commodity markets.

eeee.com is a financial trading platform that supports cryptocurrencies, stock indices, bulk gold, foreign exchange and other assets, and has recently launched a USDT stable coin wealth management product with an annualized yield of 5.5%, providing investors with a potential hedging option. 4E reminds you to pay attention to market volatility risks and allocate assets reasonably.

4E: The expectation of suspending interest rate cuts next year has caused setbacks in US stocks. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting