Odaily星球日报讯 SPI Asset Management 分析师 Stephen Innes 表示，尽管市场参与者普遍认为，进一步降息和强劲的盈利增长将共存，但这些因素并不一定相互依存。 人们普遍预计美联储将降息 25 个基点，但此后的走势仍不明朗。无论如何，美元、股市和债市随后的走势在很大程度上取决于美联储即将发布的指引，而不是周三降息本身。关键问题在于，美联储是否会在明年 1 月 FOMC 会议上发出暂停加息的信号。我的观点倾向于肯定。然而，真正的焦点在于美联储将如何明确地传达这种潜在的转变，并确认“鹰派降息”。（金十）

Odaily星球日报讯 SPI Asset Management 分析师 Stephen Innes 表示，尽管市场参与者普遍认为，进一步降息和强劲的盈利增长将共存，但这些因素并不一定相互依存。人们普遍预计美联储将降息 25 个基点，但此后的走势仍不明朗。无论如何，美元、股市和债市随后的走势在很大程度上取决于美联储即将发布的指引，而不是周三降息本身。关键问题在于，美联储是否会在明年 1 月 FOMC 会议上发出暂停加息的信号。我的观点倾向于肯定。然而，真正的焦点在于美联储将如何明确地传达这种潜在的转变，并确认“鹰派降息”。（金十）

分析师：市场聚焦明年美联储1月是否暂停加息及如何传达“鹰派降息”潜在态度转变

Odaily Odaily News reports that SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes said that although market participants generally believe that further rate cuts and strong earnings growth will coexist, these factors are not necessarily interdependent. People generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent trend is still unclear. In any case, the subsequent trend of the US dollar, stock market and bond market largely depends on the guidance to be issued by the Federal Reserve, rather than the rate cut itself on Wednesday. The key question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause in rate hikes at the January 2020 FOMC meeting. My view tends to be affirmative. However, the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will clearly convey this potential shift and confirm a "dovish rate cut". (JinShi)

Odaily reports that SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes said that while market participants generally believe that further rate cuts and strong earnings growth will coexist, these factors are not necessarily interdependent. It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent trend remains unclear. In any case, the subsequent trends of the US dollar, stock market and bond market largely depend on the guidance to be issued by the Federal Reserve, rather than the rate cut itself on Wednesday. The key question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause in rate hikes at the January 2020 FOMC meeting. My view tends to be affirmative. However, the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will clearly convey this potential shift and confirm a "dovish rate cut". (Gold Ten)

Analysts: The market is focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in January next year and how to convey the potential change in attitude of "hawkish interest rate cuts"

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", with about two days left until the next FOMC meeting, the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged by December is 2.9%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut has risen to 97.1%, up 1.1 percentage points from last Saturday.

The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 97.1%.

Here is the English translation:

On December 16, according to 4E monitoring, the S&P 500 ended its three-week rally last week, falling 0.64% for the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.82% for the week, marking its seventh consecutive trading day of decline; the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.34% for the week, reaching a record high of 20,000 points for the first time.

Bitcoin rose above $100,000 last week, setting the longest seven-week winning streak since 2021. The heat in the <Altcoin> market has cooled, with generally large pullbacks. For the week, Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $2.115 billion, Ethereum ETF had a net inflow of about $712.7 million, and the supply of <USDT> increased by $2.1 billion, indicating a continued positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin has suddenly surged, breaking through the historical high to reach $106,648, and the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap have also risen by nearly 1% to 4%.

In the foreign exchange and commodity markets, the US dollar index performed strongly last week, breaking above 107 on Friday and continuing to hit new two-week highs, rising nearly 1% for the week, the best weekly performance in a month, while non-US currencies fell across the board for the week. International oil prices surged across the board last week, driven by geopolitical tensions, ending a two-week losing streak, with US oil up more than 6% for the week and Brent oil up 4.54% for the week. Benefiting from market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, spot gold rose 0.56% for the week.

The most closely watched economic event this week is the FOMC meeting to be held on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision and quarterly economic forecast will be announced. The market has already fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, and the real focus is on clues about the future policy direction of the Federal Reserve. The market expects rate cuts next year to be more cautious and gradual, and there may even be a pause in rate cuts as early as January.

In addition, this week is also the last "Super Central Bank Week" of 2024, with as many as 25 central banks, including those of Japan, the UK and Sweden, holding policy meetings in the same week, and the release of some key central bank decisions may trigger market volatility, especially in the 24-hour non-stop foreign exchange and commodity markets.

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4E: The expectation of suspending interest rate cuts next year has caused setbacks in US stocks. This week, we will focus on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting

Odaily Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping the current interest rate unchanged in December is 4.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 95.4%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged in January next year is 3.8%, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 79.9%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 16.3%.