中金分析认为，1 月 FOMC（1 月 29 日）降息的可能性已经很小；但如果特朗普当选后，通胀性的政策出台较为温和，上半年仍有降息窗口；反之，如果政策推进过于激进导致美联储评估通胀有大幅抬升风险，那么降息节奏有可能进一步推后。此次降息预期大幅回落导致资产回调，从这个意义上未必是坏事，消化了过于亢奋的预期才有利于更可持续的上涨。

<div>中金分析认为，1 月 FOMC（1 月 29 日）降息的可能性已经很小；但如果特朗普当选后，通胀性的政策出台较为温和，上半年仍有降息窗口；反之，如果政策推进过于激进导致美联储评估通胀有大幅抬升风险，那么降息节奏有可能进一步推后。此次降息预期大幅回落导致资产回调，从这个意义上未必是坏事，消化了过于亢奋的预期才有利于更可持续的上涨。<br><br></div>

中金：1 月 FOMC（1 月 29 日）降息的可能性已经很小

The China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the possibility of a rate cut by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in January (January 29) is already very small. However, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration after his election are relatively moderate in terms of inflationary impact, there may still be a window for rate cuts in the first half of the year. Conversely, if the policies are too aggressive, leading the Federal Reserve to assess a significant risk of inflation acceleration, the pace of rate cuts may be further delayed. The sharp decline in rate cut expectations has led to asset adjustments, which may not necessarily be a bad thing, as it helps to digest the overly optimistic expectations and is conducive to a more sustainable upward trend.

According to China International Capital Corporation (CICC) analysis, the possibility of a rate cut by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in January (January 29) has become very small. However, if the policies implemented by the Trump administration after his election are relatively moderate in terms of inflationary impact, there may still be a window for rate cuts in the first half of the year. Conversely, if the policy implementation is too aggressive, leading the Federal Reserve to assess a significant upside risk to inflation, the pace of rate cuts may be further delayed. The sharp decline in rate cut expectations has led to asset pullback, which may not necessarily be a bad thing, as it helps digest the overly exuberant expectations, paving the way for a more sustainable upward trend.

CICC: The possibility of a rate cut by the FOMC in January (January 29) is very small

Odaily Odaily News reports that SPI Asset Management analyst Stephen Innes said that although market participants generally believe that further rate cuts and strong earnings growth will coexist, these factors are not necessarily interdependent. People generally expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent trend is still unclear. In any case, the subsequent trend of the US dollar, stock market and bond market largely depends on the guidance to be issued by the Federal Reserve, rather than the rate cut itself on Wednesday. The key question is whether the Federal Reserve will signal a pause in rate hikes at the January 2020 FOMC meeting. My view tends to be affirmative. However, the real focus is on how the Federal Reserve will clearly convey this potential shift and confirm a "dovish rate cut". (JinShi)

Analysts: The market is focusing on whether the Federal Reserve will suspend interest rate hikes in January next year and how to convey the potential change in attitude of "hawkish interest rate cuts"

Odaily reports that according to a CNBC survey in December, respondents are confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week, but they are not sure whether it should. 93% of people believe the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, only 63% believe this is what the Fed should do. Respondents expect two more 25-basis-point rate cuts by 2025, lower than the three cuts expected in the previous survey. By this time next year, the federal funds rate will have fallen to 3.8%, and by the end of 2026, it will have fallen to 3.4%, slightly higher than the average neutral rate. A huge unknown is the fiscal policy of the new administration. The survey shows that the prospect of President-elect Trump's tariffs and potential deportation of immigrants has dampened some people's upside forecasts for the economy. Economist Robert Fry said he has never been so uncertain about the inflation outlook. Trump has provided us with a combination of factors that could raise inflation (tariffs, tax cuts) and lower inflation (deregulation, spending cuts). Who knows what we'll end up with?

CNBC survey: 93% of respondents believe the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month

Odaily Odaily News: "Fed Mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos: The Federal Reserve's policy statement added the phrase "pace and extent" which suggests that it will slow the pace of rate cuts to make potential adjustments. (<金十>)