Chainfeeds Summary:
Arthur Hayes, based on the current political and economic situation, analyzes the impact of Trump's election on the macroeconomic market and the cryptocurrency market. This article is compiled by Wu Blockchain.
Source:
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/0ZYIptM3zwInBtF0wZ7L7Q
Author:
Arthur Hayes
Viewpoint:
Arthur Hayes: I believe the market has not realized how limited the time Trump actually has. The market believes that Trump and his team can immediately achieve economic and political miracles. However, the problems that led to Trump's popularity are actually the result of decades of accumulation. Therefore, no matter what Elon Musk tells you on the X platform, there is no quick fix. Therefore, it is almost impossible for Trump to appease his voters enough to prevent the Democrats from regaining control of both houses in 2026. The people feel urgent because they are in dire straits. Trump is a shrewd politician and understands his voters. To me, this means he has to take big actions early, which is why I expect a major devaluation of the US dollar and gold within the first 100 days of his inauguration. This is a simple way to make US production costs globally competitive. It will lead to an immediate return of production capacity and immediate hiring growth, rather than something that happens five years later. I believe the cryptocurrency market will experience a harrowing decline before the "collapse phase" of the next cryptocurrency bull market, before Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025. Maelstrom will reduce some positions in advance, hoping to buy back some core positions at lower prices in the first half of 2025. Obviously, every trader will say this and believe they can time the market accurately. Most of the time, they will sell too early and then lack the confidence to buy back in at higher prices. The result is that these traders miss out on the entire bull market's profits. If this is indeed the case, we will acknowledge the failure, lick our wounds, and re-engage in the bull market. Trump's "truth" has shown me the structural flaws in the global order. Trump's "truth" tells me that the best way to maximize returns is to own Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Therefore, I will buy on dips.
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