BTC, 'Halving and Bull Market Year' Unfailingly Records 'Santa Rally'
Foreign Media "BTC Expects Record-Breaking Santa Rally in Record-Breaking Bull Market Year"
On-chain data also reveals BTC undervaluation data following recent adjustments
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During the Christmas season, Bitcoin has shown a pattern of the year's trend becoming more pronounced. In a bull market, it rises even more, and in a bear market, it falls even more. Based on this pattern, the cryptocurrency media outlet Biencrypto has forecast that Bitcoin will enjoy a Santa Rally this year.
Bitcoin recorded increases of 12.68%, 11.25%, and 25.63% during the Christmas seasons of 2012, 2016, and 2020, respectively, which were years considered to be halving years and bull market years.
2024 is recorded as a year of Bitcoin's halving as well as a year of record-breaking Bitcoin bull market, with Bitcoin's price rising about 137% from the beginning of this year to the present. Accordingly, there are expectations that a record-breaking Santa Rally may unfold this year, just as a record-breaking bull market was recorded in 2024.
This week, Bitcoin fell below the $100,000 level due to comments from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and a cascade of futures market liquidations. However, this decline is seen as the 'adjustment' necessary before the Santa Rally, leading to an optimistic outlook.
Biencrypto reported that "despite the recent slight adjustment, there is a lot of expectation that Bitcoin will record high prices during Christmas week," and "based on the precedent of Bitcoin skyrocketing in halving years, many experts are predicting a Santa Rally in 2024."
In addition to the past pattern, on-chain data also forecasts an increase in Bitcoin during the Christmas season. The 'Bitcoin Cycle Oscillator', which calculates the average value of Bitcoin's price in the long term and determines the undervaluation or overvaluation of the current Bitcoin price, has forecast that Bitcoin has hit the bottom.
On December 20, the Bitcoin Cycle Oscillator value recorded 0.70, indicating that Bitcoin's price is significantly below the long-term average price and has hit the bottom. Based on this data, on-chain analysis experts forecast that Bitcoin will rebound during Christmas week and continue to set new highs.
