Chainfeeds Summary:
ChainCatcher: The Meme on the chain has just begun, and AI Meme is more worth paying attention to.
Source:
https://www.chaincatcher.com/article/2158131
Author:
ChainCatcher
Viewpoint:
ChainCatcher: On the one hand, we need to look at the market's acceptance from the bottom up, which is a very critical point. On the other hand, we also need to think about the most fundamental reasons behind the track. For example, what is the crypto doing at the most fundamental level, and which elements are the most successful parts of its underlying foundation. When it comes to crypto assets, I have summarized several "axioms" for judgment, which I have summarized as the "Three Laws of the Bull Market Engine" - 1) Old technology, new gameplay: see if this technology has enough accumulated foundation, like on-chain assets actually rely on the advantages accumulated from previous infrastructures like DeFi; 2) New track, new hope: if it is a completely new concept, the market's ceiling for its valuation will be larger, just like the previous metaverse concept, even if the product may not be very qualified by traditional Internet standards, but because it has proposed a new trend and new hope, it can also reach a very high market value during the bull market. For example, projects like SAND grew significantly in market value during the 2020-2021 bull market, despite their poor products, due to new trends and hopes; 3) Batch production of new assets: a single profitable asset is difficult to form a powerful force, only when many related assets can be profitable, will it form a strong attraction, like different on-chain projects can all make investors profitable, will attract more people to participate. Like the previous DeFi, the narrative is the revolution of traditional finance, and there are also concepts like NFT and metaverse, claiming that everyone will live in the virtual world in the future, these stories are particularly imaginative. But now, people basically understand NFT, and the metaverse like Facebook itself hasn't even figured it out, DeFi needs to show actual data if it wants to land, and the most imaginative thing in the crypto world right now is AI, it's hard for other things to have such appeal again. Secondly, AI has actual value. Just as DeFi has real transactions happening, with TVL (total locked value) data reflecting its value, AI is the same. Some AI agent projects have already generated revenue, such as Virtuals; many AI projects are being widely used, such as ai16z; some AI projects already have considerable traffic, such as ACT and GOAT Meme projects. Some AI agents have even become better knowledge aggregators than many human-made ones, integrating their language libraries to serve everyone - this is actually a level of productivity improvement, not just empty slogans, it is doing real things and can bring changes to crypto digital currencies. What indicators can help us distinguish potential targets and hot spots? I think we can observe and judge from the following aspects. First, the narrative and community status of the target itself. At the narrative level, some AI-related projects, for example, have innovative AI-crypto interaction models or represent unique trends, and such narratives are relatively outstanding. At the community level, we need to pay attention to whether there are loyal fans who continue to build during the price decline, create secondary works every day, and remain active on various platforms. At the same time, the community should not be limited to Chinese or English communities, but both Chinese and English communities should be hot, so that the upper limit of its subsequent development will be higher. The narrative and community can be seen as one of the basic elements of judgment. Secondly, the financial aspect. We should pay attention to the chip situation, judge whether the big players have already profited and left, and handed the chips over to the big players. We can use some chip analysis methods, such as checking whether the front row is all loss-making big players, if so, the target may be difficult to rise again. If the big players still hold a lot of undisturbed chips, it means they have the motivation to continue to collect chips and carry out secondary pull-ups. Combining the trends mentioned earlier, the community status, and the chip and capital situation mentioned later, we can roughly judge whether a target is a potential target.
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