Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.35 trillion, with BTC accounting for 57.626%, which is $1.93 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $204.2 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.05%, of which USDT accounts for 68.87%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price of BTC at $97,738; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $3,385.

CoinMarketCap's top 200 projects, most have declined, and a small portion have increased, among which: HYPE has a 7-day increase of 42.74%, USUAL has a 7-day increase of 113.43%, and BGB has a 7-day increase of 32.04%.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $586 million; the net inflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $153.7 million.

On December 20, the "Fear & Greed Index" was 74 (lower than the previous week), and the market sentiment this week was 3 days of greed and 4 days of extreme greed.

Market forecast: Stablecoins will continue to be issued, ETFs will have net inflows, and the market's positive sentiment will decline slightly due to the reduction in the expected number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, but the market is currently in the mid-bull market phase, and investors can buy on dips, and the RWA track can be focused on recently.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On December 16, according to Coinglass data, Bitcoin rose above $105,000 this morning, but the current funding rates of mainstream CEXs and DEXs are all below 0.01%, indicating that the market has not shown a significant bullish sentiment or FOMO;

2. On December 17, according to a report by Fortune, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently issued a Wells Notice to the crypto investment company Unicoin, accusing it of fraud, misconduct, and unregistered securities issuance. Unicoin CEO Alex Konanykhin revealed that the company has sold about $3.5 billion in tokens and has about 70,000 investors, with its tokens backed by physical assets such as 8,000 acres of land in the Bahamas. SEC Chairman Gensler will step down in January 2025, and this move is seen as the last wave of regulatory actions against the crypto industry during his tenure. Unicoin needs to respond by December 24, and the company says it will choose legal confrontation rather than settlement;

3. On December 17, the 21Shares XRP Trust has been registered in the state of Delaware, USA. The registered entity was established on June 3, 2024 and is a statutory trust, with the registered agent being CSC Delaware Trust Company, located in Wilmington, Delaware;

4. On December 18, according to Cointelegraph, Ripple's stablecoin RLUSD has officially launched;

5. On December 18, according to official website data, Hyperliquid's open interest reached a record high of $4.28 billion on December 16;

6. On December 19, according to on-chain data, the Trump crypto project World Liberty has increased its holdings by over 230,000 ENA;

7. On December 19, according to Bloomberg, MicroStrategy co-founder and chairman Michael Saylor said that once the current fundraising plan is exhausted, the company will shift from a leveraged Bitcoin proxy strategy to a more fixed-income securities-focused approach to raise funds to purchase cryptocurrencies;

8. On December 18, according to official news, Usual has reached a cooperation with Ethena Labs and Securitize, a tokenization platform under BlackRock, and the upcoming stablecoin USDtb from Ethena Labs and Securitize will become the main collateral asset for Usual's stablecoin USD0. As part of this collaboration, Usual will also launch the sUSDe vault for USD0++ holders, allowing Usual users to earn sUSDe APY and Ethena rewards as well as additional USUAL rewards;

9. On December 19, according to data disclosed by IntoTheBlock, an important demand zone of around $97,500 has formed, with over 1.45 million BTC accumulated at an average price around $97,500, making it a significant potential support area;

10. On December 19, the board of directors of the publicly traded company reAlpha Tech Corp. (AIRE) approved a new investment policy, listing Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana as the company's primary reserve assets. The company plans to allocate up to 25% of its excess cash to the purchase of cryptocurrencies after ensuring 6 months of operating expenses, with the specific allocation to be adjusted based on market conditions and actual operational needs;

11. On December 19, the Federal Reserve concluded its 2024 annual interest rate decision, deciding to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%-4.50% range, the third consecutive rate cut, in line with expectations.

In the eight decisions this year, the Federal Reserve has cumulatively cut rates by 100 basis points, with one 50-basis-point cut and two 25-basis-point cuts, and five decisions to keep rates unchanged.

12. On December 20, Coinbase announced that it has temporarily suspended wBTC trading. wBTC trading on Coinbase Exchange and Coinbase Prime has been suspended, but users can still withdraw their funds at any time.

Macroeconomic

1. On December 18, crypto asset management firm Bitwise launched a Solana staking ETP in Europe, with the stock ticker BSOL, and Solana staking provider Marinade will become Bitwise's staking provider;

2. On December 19, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25%, pausing rate hikes for the third consecutive time;

3. On December 20, the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved the listing and trading of shares of the Hashdex Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF and the Franklin Crypto Index ETF on the Nasdaq and Cboe BZX exchanges, respectively;

4. On December 20, the Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it will issue the fifth tranche of 5 billion yen in zero-coupon ordinary bonds. The raised funds will be used to accelerate the purchase of Bitcoin, and the bonds will mature on June 16, 2025. The company plans to ensure the repayment of the bonds through the exercise of the 12th batch of stock acquisition rights.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period from December 16 to December 20, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $586 million; as of December 20, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $21.247 billion, currently holding $20.057 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $53.339 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF is $112.922 billion.

The net inflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $153.7 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will hold Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025 in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. The Sui lending protocol Scallop has launched a Christmas airdrop event, where users who have a borrowing value greater than $1,000 or hold more than 1,000 veSCA can participate in the distribution of 1 million SCA tokens from December 14 to December 26;

2. Pump Science has released an updated roadmap, announcing new partnerships, preparing for mouse experiments, and protocol development on December 24.

Important Events

1. The European Banking Authority (EBA)'s new guidelines on the "travel rule" for crypto assets will take effect on December 30, 2024;

2. The European Union's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) Regulation, which provides guidance for crypto currency exchanges and other companies operating in the EU, will take effect from December 31.

Token Unlocks

1. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 19.5 million tokens on December 25, worth about $23.1 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply;

2. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on December 27, worth about $33.04 million, accounting for 1.23% of the circulating supply;

3. Axelar (AXL) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on December 27, worth about $9.48 million, accounting for 1.14% of the circulating supply.

4. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 19.07 million tokens on December 28, worth approximately $9.34 million, accounting for 1.91% of the circulating supply.