First, I'll discuss three points that I'm quite Bullish on:
1. Pudgy Penguins survived after experiencing a team change and being FUD'd, and they're doing well. The key is the team's strong self-sustaining ability - they've been able to make money by selling toys and leveraging the penguin IP, which has ensured the project's long-term operation, such as launching the metaverse and issuing tokens.
You should know that after Blur took over user mindshare, many NFT projects declined because they "lost royalty income." This also sparked a lot of controversy at the time. Having money allows you to get things done, but without money, it's difficult. Even the Ethereum Foundation is selling $ETH to get things done (with a dog head).
The team is the core of a project's continuous development and expansion. The new Pudgy Penguins team has proven themselves - self-sustaining + creating new market expectations (painting a bigger BTC).
2. $PENGU Valuation
We can now treat $PENGU as a memecoin - the meme of an NFT IP, something like that. Many people seem to be treating $PENGU as a meme, comparing it to projects like $DOGE, $MEME, and $SHIB. But considering its upcoming Abstract L2, perhaps we should see it as a Layer2 Ticker.
Abstract is built on the ZK Stack framework based on ZKSync, and the mainnet launch is expected in January 2025. The highlight of Abstract is Native Account Abstraction, which simply means users can create and use wallets with social information like email.
Another point is that Abstract will distribute the revenue from the on-chain sequencer to token holders who actively participate in governance, and the token for governance and dividends is most likely $PENGU. Participating governance token holders will have the right to direct future token emissions to specific ecosystem projects.
Some projects have already confirmed they will deploy on the Abstract mainnet.
It's worth mentioning that the Pudgy Penguins team will use LayerZero to enable the circulation of $PENGU between the Abstract and Solana ecosystems.
However, considering the early cold start and subsequent development, Abstract will likely have its own token in the future. $PENGU is very likely to become the medium for users to obtain the Abstract token, such as staking to accumulate points, similar to Blur - Blast. In the early stage, Abstract will be governed by $PENGU holders, and later by both Abstract token and $PENGU holders.
Btw, the background of the investors is also very good.
3. Most airdrop recipients have already sold their positions. The general process is: wash trading, accumulating positions, and then dumping.
Now, let me discuss two Bearish points⬇️
Currently: The overall market sentiment is not good, and as we approach the Christmas - New Year period, the market is generally weak. This is not a good time to buy coins. However, this kind of time usually gives us a bottom.
In the future: When the Abstract mainnet launches, Pudgy Toys players will receive $PENGU airdrops, which may create some selling pressure. But I don't think the impact will be significant.
If you want to buy $PENGU, it's best to wait for the market to stabilize and for $PENGU to consolidate. The expectation is that Abstract may have some connection with $PENGU. If there is no connection, for short-term holders, selling is a better choice; for long-term holders, you can only hope for Abstract's future performance.
