Odaily星球日报讯 美联储的基调上周变得更加鹰派。它预计 2025 年的通货膨胀率将高于此前的预估，并减少了明年预计的降息次数。复兴宏观的分析师尼尔・达塔写道，在一个看似正在放缓的经济环境中，美联储可能会陷入不利境地，继而重新回到更为鸽派的立场。他怀疑，对特朗普政府政策的预期——鲍威尔承认美联储的一些官员如今已将其纳入考量——将导致明年预测的变化，美联储“似乎是在通过放缓降息步伐，为潜在的关税冲击采取预防措施”。达塔写道：“鉴于经济的潜在动能似乎已经减弱，这（种做法）是很危险的。”。（金十）

分析师：美联储鹰派转向对经济很危险

Odaily Odaily News: The Federal Reserve&#39;s tone became more hawkish last week. It expects inflation in 2025 to be higher than previously estimated, and has reduced the number of rate cuts expected next year. Neil Datta, an analyst at Renaissance Macro, wrote that in an economic environment that appears to be slowing, the Fed may be at a disadvantage and return to a more dovish stance. He suspects that expectations of the Trump administration&#39;s policies - which Powell acknowledged that some Fed officials have now taken into account - will lead to changes in forecasts for next year, and the Fed &quot;seems to be taking precautions against potential tariff shocks by slowing the pace of rate cuts.&quot; &quot;This is dangerous, given that the underlying momentum of the economy appears to have weakened,&quot; Datta wrote. (Jinshi)

Analysts: Fed's hawkish turn is dangerous for the economy

Odaily reports that Barclays Bank said one of the factors that may keep US interest rates high is US (inflation) policy. At the December meeting, some FOMC participants apparently began to reflect their expectations of tariffs in their inflation forecasts. Furthermore, even among those who did not adjust their official forecasts, many now believe that the balance of inflation risks is tilted to the upside. Although Powell did not explicitly answer to what extent the Fed is inclined to view the price level rise due to tariffs, we believe that, given that tariffs are expected to exacerbate inflation in the second half of 2025, particularly against the backdrop of rising inflation rates in recent years, it will be a challenge for the Fed to continue cutting rates. We expect the Fed to pause rate cuts after June next year and resume rate cuts around mid-2026 after the inflationary pressure caused by tariffs dissipates. In our baseline, we expect two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2026, with a terminal rate of 3.25-3.50%. (Gold Ten)

Barclays: The Fed is expected to stop cutting interest rates after June next year until mid-2026

The US dollar rose as the market continued to bet on the Federal Reserve taking a cautious rate cut path. According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by a cumulative 38 basis points by December 2025.

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points the previous week, but hinted that the pace of future rate cuts would slow. In a report, Deutsche Bank analysts said the Federal Reserve is likely to skip a rate cut in January next year, which could turn into a prolonged pause in policy easing by 2025. (<金十>)

Analyst: The Fed is likely to skip rate cuts in January next year

Odaily reports that HSBC still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025. (<金十>)