Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)
In the past week, Bitcoin experienced a major correction, falling about 15% from its historic high of $108,300 to around $92,000. Currently, with the gradual stabilization of market sentiment, the Bitcoin price has recovered to around $96,000, entering a volatile stage.
The recent decline has caused severe bleeding in the Altcoin market, with the prices of many tokens even falling back to pre-October levels, wiping out the "Trump effect" gains after Trump's election as US president. However, with the arrival of the Christmas holidays, many believe that the "Christmas massacre" will further exacerbate the market downturn.
However, 2025 is approaching, and a series of positive factors such as Trump's inauguration and Bitcoin's strategic reserve plan are poised to take effect. At that time, the cryptocurrency industry is still expected to usher in a new "dawn".
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the views of industry insiders, the situation of institutional buying, and some on-chain activities in this article, providing readers with a more comprehensive understanding of the market.
Overview of Industry Insiders' Views: Mostly Bullish, Minority Bearish
From the perspective of mainstream industry figures, most believe that the current BTC market correction is temporary, mainly due to the too-fast breakthrough of the $108,000 new high, and at the same time, Altcoin holders are eager to sell, causing market volatility and downward trend. As 2024 is about to end and 2025 is about to arrive, BTC is expected to continue to reach new highs.
CZ: Waiting for new headlines, Bitcoin will continue to set new highs
Binance co-founder CZ recently stated that he is waiting for new headlines, and Bitcoin will continue to set new highs. Previously, CZ had tweeted four years ago that BTC "crashed" from $101,000 to $85,000, waiting for news headlines.
Cathie Wood: BTC will become scarcer than gold due to institutional demand
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood stated that due to institutional demand, Bitcoin "is becoming scarcer than gold", and she had previously predicted that by 2030, the BTC price will exceed $1 million.
Bitwise CIO: BTC has three unstoppable sources of demand - ETF, MicroStrategy, and governments
On December 19, Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan pointed out three "unstoppable" sources of demand for Bitcoin: ETF, Microstrategy, and governments potentially becoming Bitcoin buyers. He added: "It ultimately comes down to supply and demand. Demand is too high, supply is too low, so I think the price will be higher in 2025."
Trader Peter Brandt: BTC may continue to rise, with a near-term price target of $125,000
After BTC fell below the $91,000 level recently, it saw a strong rebound over the weekend, currently slightly retreating to around $96,000. During this process, veteran trader Peter Brandt reiterated his bullish view on BTC and stated that it may continue to rise in the future. In addition, other on-chain indicators also suggest a positive outlook for BTC. In a recent analysis, Brandt said BTC may reach $108,358 in the coming days.
Peter Brandt's candlestick analysis
However, he also cited technical charts to warn that BTC prices could retrace to $76,614 in the uptrend, and added that "this is not a forecast", pointing out the risks in the market. He stated that these analyses only reflect "possibilities, not probabilities, and not certainties". In addition, he recently set a BTC price target of $125,000.
Lark Davis: The current correction is not the "end of the bull market", the market still has ample fuel
Crypto KOL and industry analyst Lark Davis analyzed based on historical data that the current crypto market correction is not the "end of the bull market". He said: "In December 2020, after a 77% rise from October to November, BTC fell 12%. Then it rose from $17,000 to $41,000 (136%) in the next 23 days. Something similar is happening now, Bitcoin has fallen 13% after a big Q4 rally. It doesn't mean this is the bottom, we may see another 10-15% correction. But Bitcoin and the crypto market still have ample fuel."
Analyst: Bitcoin's correction is highly correlated with Coinbase's selling since October 26
The recent BTC price decline marks a sharp shift in market sentiment, which has quickly changed from extremely bullish to uncertain and cautious. With Altcoins suffering heavy losses, the Bitcoin correction has raised concerns about the sustainability of the recent rally.
Top analyst Maartunn recently emphasized that this adjustment is in line with Coinbase's most severe selling activity since October 26 (when BTC was trading at $66,000). The increase in selling pressure clearly indicates that the market has shifted from a bullish to a fearful and hesitant state. The combination of reduced buying activity and increased selling pressure suggests the market is struggling to maintain the uptrend. In addition, Bitcoin is currently testing the $92,000 level to seek support.
Bitfinex: Bitcoin may reach $200,000 by mid-2025, with moderate corrections
In a recent market report, Bitfinex analysts stated that due to strong institutional demand, Bitcoin's downtrend in 2025 will be short-lived, and the best-case scenario is that the Bitcoin price will double by June 2025, with the lowest estimate reaching "$145,000 by mid-2025, and potentially as high as $200,000 under favorable conditions."
The analysts said: "We believe any 2025 adjustments will be moderate due to institutional capital inflows." They pointed out that while Bitcoin is expected to be volatile in Q1 2025, the "broader trend" indicates its price will continue to rise, thanks to the continued inflow of spot Bitcoin ETFs and increased global and institutional adoption.
CryptoQuant CEO: This is not a traditional "altseason", but the independent performance of individual tokens
On December 20, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that Bitcoin's market share has dropped 6% (with XRP contributing 3%), but it has started to rebound. Currently, only a few Altcoins are attracting new liquidity, and the capital rotation from Bitcoin to Altcoins is limited.
He believes, this is not a traditional "altseason", but the independent performance of individual tokens that have performed well.
Trader Eugene: Altcoin investors are eager to sell spot, the market may enter a longer consolidation phase
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio shared his views on the Altcoin market: "Altcoins (Alts) have quickly fallen back to these wick lows in less than 48 hours after forming the lows, indicating that investors are extremely anxious about holding spot assets and are eager to sell. The market may enter a longer adjustment phase, or quickly plummet in the short term."
Analyst: "Significant Correction" in Crypto Bull Market is "Very Typical"
Earlier, Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high of over $108,000, and this round of crypto market downturn has had a greater impact on Altcoins such as Ethereum and Dogecoin. Last Thursday, a group of U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that directly invest in Bitcoin ended 15 consecutive days of inflows, setting a record $680 million outflow, highlighting the shift in market sentiment.
Strahinja Savic, Head of Data and Analytics at FRNT Financial, said that seeing such a significant correction in a crypto bull market is "very typical", and QCP Capital said in a report that the root cause of the selloff is the market's "excessive optimistic" positions.
Strong Buying Pressure: BTC ETF Continues Inflows, Countries and Companies Follow Suit
From the perspective of fundamental buying pressure, the market is still in the "sweet spot" of institutional trading, with funds from U.S. BTC ETFs, El Salvador, U.S. listed companies, and Japanese listed companies continuously purchasing BTC, and the cost basis is not much different from the spot price. Institutions are relatively optimistic about BTC's future performance.
Bitcoin Cap Table: ETFs, Governments and MSTR Now Hold 31% of All Bitcoin, More Than Double Last Year
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju updated the Bitcoin holdings pie chart, showing that ETFs, governments and MSTR now hold 31% of all Bitcoin, up from 14% last year.
Bitcoin Holdings Pie Chart Information
U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Trading Volume Reaches $26 Billion in 50th Week, $17.5 Billion Inflows in Q4 So Far
According to Trader T's monitoring, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of $463 million in the 50th week, with a trading volume of $26 billion. Additionally:
Bitcoin ETF inflows in Q4 so far have reached $17.5 billion (best quarter);
BlackRock IBIT had inflows of $1.452 billion;
Other ETFs had outflows of $989 million.
El Salvador Increases BTC Purchasing Power, Targets 20,000 BTC Mid-Term
On December 21, according to Bitcoin Magazine, El Salvador's senior Bitcoin advisor Max Keiser revealed that "President Bukele has increased the daily Bitcoin purchase, with a mid-term target of adding 20,000 Bitcoin to its holdings." On December 22, El Salvador's wallet address added about 11 more BTC (worth $1.06 million) to its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Previously, El Salvador reached an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to receive a $1.4 billion credit line, but with a requirement to "reduce Bitcoin risks"; when asked about Bitcoin's status as legal tender in El Salvador, IMF spokesman Gerry Rice said that the use of Bitcoin would be voluntary.
In the latest news, Stacy Herbert, director of El Salvador's Bitcoin Office, clarified that even after the agreement, the country will continue to "accelerate" Bitcoin purchases as part of its strategic Bitcoin reserve strategy. Herbert also explained that Bitcoin will remain the country's legal tender, and the government will continue to sponsor several crypto-focused educational programs. The Bitcoin Office reported that the "1 BTC per day" purchase plan will continue.
Additionally, the country has made additional purchases, adding 30 BTC in the past 7 days and 53 BTC in the past 30 days.
Australia's Monochrome Spot Bitcoin ETF Holdings Reach 272 BTC
As of December 19, the Australian Monochrome spot Bitcoin ETF (IBTC) held 272 BTC, with an AUM of approximately $44.35 million.
Australia's BTC ETF Continues to Increase Holdings
Statistics: At Least 10 Companies Are Implementing or Considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy
According to statistics, at least 10 companies are implementing or considering MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, including:
AI company Genius Group: currently holds 294 BTC;
Pickup truck solution provider Worksport: the board of directors approved an initial purchase of $5 million worth of BTC and XRP;
Amazon: a shareholder proposal for the board to evaluate the potential benefits of adding Bitcoin to the financial strategy;
MicroStrategy: currently holds 439,000 BTC;
MARA Holdings: currently holds 44,394 BTC;
Tesla: currently holds 9,720 BTC;
Coinbase: currently holds 9,480 BTC as part of its reserves;
Hut 8 Mining Corp: currently holds 10,096 BTC;
Block Inc.: currently holds 8,027 BTC;
OneMedNet: currently holds 34 BTC.
Among them, Bitcoin miner MARA previously disclosed that it had raised $1.925 billion through convertible notes in November and December and bought 15,574 BTC at an average price of $98,529, worth about $1.53 billion, and repurchased a total principal amount of approximately $263 million of its existing convertible notes due 2026, and plans to use the remaining proceeds to purchase more Bitcoin. Hut 8 surpassed Tesla on December 19 to become the fourth publicly traded company to hold over 10,000 BTC.
Japanese Listed Company Metaplanet Increases Holdings by 619.7 BTC
On December 23, Japanese listed company Metaplanet announced that it had further increased its holdings by 619.7 BTC, at a total cost of 9.5 billion yen (about $60.68 million), with an average purchase price of around $97,800; its total BTC holdings have increased to 1,761.98 BTC.
Announcement of Increased Holdings
Glassnode: Bitcoin Drawdown Severity Decreases in Bull Trend, Most Corrections Around 25%
Glassnode previously stated that "interestingly, as the market has grown, the severity of Bitcoin drawdowns in the bull market uptrend has decreased. The deepest drawdown this cycle was -32% (August 5, 2024), while most corrections have only been around 25% from previous highs, reflecting the demand for spot ETFs and the growing institutional interest."
Glassnode Suggests Drawdown Severity Tends to Decrease
On-Chain Activity: Growth in Wallet Addresses, Dormant Addresses Awakening, Long-Term Holders Exiting
On-chain activity shows a polarized phenomenon: on the one hand, the number of mainstream cryptocurrency holding addresses has grown to varying degrees, at least 25% or more, as the time frame is extended; on the other hand, ancient BTC addresses dormant for over 10 years have also awakened, and many long-term BTC holders have started to gradually exit.
The number of non-zero BTC and ETH wallets has increased by 27% and 47% respectively in the past two years
Santiment reported that the number of cryptocurrency holders has increased significantly in the past two years. The following are the number of non-zero wallets for the top four cryptocurrencies by market capitalization:
BTC: 54.7 million (+27%);
ETH: 134.9 million (+47%);
USDT: 6.57 million (+66%);
XRP: 5.75 million (+28%).
Analyst: As of December 20, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges this month
On December 20, crypto analyst AIi posted that as of now, 74,052 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges in December, and this trend does not seem to be slowing down.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges
Long-term BTC holders have sold 1 million BTC since September
In mid-December, long-term BTC holders have been selling a large amount of BTC, with their total BTC holdings decreasing from around 14.2 million in mid-September to around 13.2 million. BTC's current trading price is 13% lower than the historical high of around $108,000, which is the highest level since Trump's victory in the US election in early November.
According to Glassnode data, on December 19, long-term BTC holders sold nearly 70,000 BTC, which is the fourth largest single-day sell-off this year.
Several addresses holding over $20 million worth of BTC have been activated after years of dormancy
BTC fell below $96,000 on December 22, down about 11% since breaking through $108,000 on December 17, 2024.
Meanwhile, at BTC network block height 875,560, a wallet that has been dormant since July 25, 2015 was activated and transferred 44.99 BTC, the first activity since its creation. The same user actually transferred a total of 59.99 BTC, moving funds from three old P2PKH addresses to two P2WPKH wallets. Of this, 44.99 BTC came from 2015, when BTC was trading at $290. Then, 43 blocks later, dozens of wallets left over from 2017 became active, transferring a small amount of BTC (0.00000547 BTC) at block 875,603.
This pattern of sending BTC dust cleverly obscures larger transfers. Once the satoshis are settled, a newly minted P2WPKH wallet will receive 99.999 BTC, worth $9.7 million at current prices. On Saturday, a wallet was activated after 12 years of dormancy, transferring 104.99 BTC, which was worth only $11 at the time, for a total value of $1,200. Today, these BTC are worth over $10 million. This transfer also migrated from an old P2PKH address to a new P2WPKH address.
BTC continues to flow out of exchanges: Coinbase's bleeding accelerates
Coinglass data shows that the current BTC balance in the Coinbase Pro wallet is 733,076.34 BTC, ranking first among CEXs; it has seen an inflow of 16.69 BTC in the past 24 hours, an outflow of 14,661.50 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 70,185.16 BTC in the past 30 days.
The BTC balance in the Binance wallet is 571,802.93 BTC, with an inflow of 1,458.46 BTC in the past 24 hours, an inflow of 4,199.11 BTC in the past 7 days, and an outflow of 10,412.79 BTC in the past 30 days.
