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2024 is almost over, and it has been a relatively good year for the ecosystem. But what will await the cryptocurrency market in 2025?
This is an urgent question that investors may be facing. In this analysis, TinTucBitcoin discusses insights from renowned analysts about the coming year. While some predict the Bull market will continue to surge, others warn of caution. Below are the various parts of the top forecasts and important signals from key indicators.
Analysts' Expectations: The Bitcoin Price Surge Will Continue, But First...
For Benjamin Cowen, a cryptocurrency analyst and founder of IntoTheCryptoverse, Bit (BTC) specifically, may start 2025 with an adjustment. Cowen believes this could happen because in January, after previous halvings, Bit has exhibited similar behavior. He advises market participants to brace for a potential drop.
"In the past 2 halving cycles, BTC has seen a correction in January after the halving. It may be worth bracing for that outcome. This would likely involve January 2025." Cowen wrote on X.
However, this argument contradicts some opinions that Bit price could rise to around $120,000 in the first month. Currently, BTC is trading at $97,970. This year, the cryptocurrency has reached an all-time high of $108,268, representing a 112% increase year-to-date (YTD).
Ki Young Ju, CEO of the analytics platform CryptoQuant, had suggested that the Bit Bull market could last until mid-2025. Young Ju made this projection in July, noting that Bit could attract new Capital to extend the crypto Bull market into that period.
Actual Bit Price for Accumulation Addresses. Source: CryptoQuant
However, in October, Young Ju changed his view. According to him, if Bit ends 2024 with strong momentum, this could set the stage for a Bear market in 2025.
"I had predicted a correction as the BTC futures market got overheated, but we're entering a price discovery phase, and the market is heating up further. If a correction and consolidation happen, the Bull run could extend; however, a strong year-end price surge could set the stage for a Bear market in 2025." Young Ju said.
Recently, Axel Adler shared his views on the Bit Price Temperature (BPT), a measure of the distance between the current Bit price and its 4-year moving average.
Typically, Bit reaches a cycle top when the BPT index is in the range of 6 to 8. On December 7th, Adler noted that this index stood at 3.2. However, he said that if this index rises to 8, it could push Bit to $178,000.
"At a BPT level of 8, the price could reach $178K per BTC. In fact, this could be considered a target for 2025, which could materialize if the current demand for the currency in the spot market continues." Alder mentioned.
Altcoins Not Left Behind: The Solana vs. Ethereum Competition Will Continue
However, Bit is just one part of the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, it is important to consider other assets and the potential macroeconomic outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2025. At the same time, it should be noted that apart from Bit, only a few Altcoins from the 2021 Bull market may reach new highs.
Nevertheless, there are some positive signs. For example, BNB and Solana (SOL) have reached new highs, while the price of XRP has shown strong performance this quarter. Some relatively new Altcoins, such as Sui (SUI), Mantra (OM), and Bitget Token (BGB), have also achieved impressive performance.
However, this recognition would not be complete without mentioning meme Tokens, which have a strong foothold in the market during this cycle. For this reason, experts predict that meme Tokens, AI Tokens, and Real-World Asset (RWA) Tokens could continue to see strong growth in 2025.
Ethereum (ETH), however, has been somewhat disappointing. Therefore, the digital asset management firm 21Shares believes that Solana may continue to capture more market share from Ethereum in 2025.
In its report, 21Shares based this forecast on the low fees that the Solana blockchain provides and the integration of the adoption of the PayPal USD (PYUSD) stablecoin. Furthermore, it emphasized that this does not mean that SOL will dethrone ETH's market capitalization.
"While we do not expect a complete 'flippening', Solana is poised to outperform and capture more market share from Ethereum through improved UX and infrastructure." The report stated.
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However, the Total Value Locked (TVL) of Ethereum is still higher than Solana. At this time, Solana's TVL is $8.60 billion, while Ethereum's is $70.10 billion.
If the forecast becomes a reality, the TVL difference may narrow. Regarding the application of Solana ETF, 21Shares notes that approval may come in the first three quarters, but it may come by the end of 2025 or the beginning of the following year.
"The expanding role of Solana in traditional finance is expected to lay the groundwork for traditional financial products like Solana futures on the CME or US-domiciled Solana ETFs. While ETF approval may not happen in 2025, this possibility is expected to increase as we approach the end of the year and into the first half of 2026." 21Shares added.
Trump Effect and Adoption Outlook
From a macro perspective, asset managers expect the approval of Bitcoin ETF to further drive institutional adoption worldwide. This sentiment may be related to the election of Donald Trump as the US President.
Throughout his campaign, Trump repeatedly promised that his administration would provide clearer regulations for the cryptocurrency industry. His inauguration is expected to take place in January 2025, and the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler may allow the market to experience more freedom.
Outside the US, South Korea is considering lifting the ban on cryptocurrency ETFs. If achieved, this could drive trading volume to extremely high levels in the Asian region. The UK is also not being left behind, with rumors that the country may allow individual investors to access cryptocurrency exchange-traded notes (ETNs).
Based on the above, the cryptocurrency market in 2025 may bring more positive results than what has occurred this year. It is also possible that another country could adopt Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset, following in the footsteps of El Salvador.
At the time of writing, the countries with the potential to achieve this are the US and Argentina under the leadership of Javier Milei. If this happens, the price of Bitcoin is likely to reach a new high, and the total market capitalization could explode to over $5 trillion.
For Altcoins, the situation remains volatile. However, if a large amount of capital flows into these assets, they may also reach new highs. Meanwhile, investors may need to keep an eye out. If the market experiences the collapse of cryptocurrency platforms like in 2025, this forecast may be invalidated, and the market may fall into a bear phase.
Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
