"Forecast of new high for BTC in early next year and surge of ETH"
Prediction of launch of various altcoin spot ETFs
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According to data from US betting sites Polymarket and Kalshi on the 27th, their betting data forecasts that altcoins will have a historic year next year, following the BTC bull run this year.
The most predicted scenario by those who bet on Polymarket and Kalshi is the surge of BTC in early next year along with the surge of ETH. Bettors on the two sites bet that ETH will hit an all-time high in 2025 and various altcoin spot ETFs will be launched.
According to Kalshi's data on the 27th, the probability of BTC and ETH reaching $125,000 and $5,000 respectively by 2025 is over 60%. Polymarket forecast a 50% chance of BTC reaching $120,000 by the end of March. The all-time highs of BTC and ETH are $108,300 and $4,720 respectively.
Bettors on Polymarket expected the US SEC to approve spot ETFs for XRP, Solana (SOL), and Litecoin (LTC). According to Polymarket's data, the probabilities of approval for these altcoin spot ETFs are about 75%, 69%, and 51% respectively by August next year.
Kalshi's data set the probability of the president-elect Trump accumulating BTC as a strategic asset of the US government during his term at around 59%. Polymarket predicted the probability of Trump accumulating BTC as a strategic asset only within the first 100 days of his term at around 29%.
Reporter Seung-won Kwon ksw@blockstreet.co.kr
