On January 1, Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb Qureshi released a forecast for the cryptocurrency industry in 2025, divided into six parts: L1s/L2s, token launches, stablecoins, regulation, AI agents, and crypto x AI.
· L1/L2: The distinction between L1 and L2 is disappearing. Users will no longer be able to perceive the difference between L1 and L2. Although SVM and Move are powerful, EVM's market share will actually grow in 2025. Solana will force more blockchains to optimize for low latency.
· Token Launches: The era of massive airdrops through loyalty programs for everyone is over, moving towards a two-track world. The first track is that if a project has clear metrics, such as exchanges or lending protocols, they will distribute tokens entirely based on points. The second track is that projects without clear metrics (such as L1 and L2) will turn to crowdfunding. They may do small-scale airdrops to reward social contributions, but most tokens will be distributed through crowdfunding. MEME coins will continue to compete for market share with 'AI agent' coins.
· Stablecoins: The use of stablecoins will surge, especially in SMEs. Not just for trading and speculation, real businesses will start using on-chain dollars for instant settlement. By the end of 2025, banks are expected to announce the issuance of stablecoins. They don't want to fall behind. But especially with Lutnick as Commerce Secretary, Tether will remain in the top position. Ethena Labs is expected to attract more capital, especially as government bond yields continue to decline over the next year.
· Regulation: The US will pass stablecoin legislation, while the broader market infrastructure reform (FIT21) is delayed. Stablecoin adoption is accelerating, while Wall Street adoption, asset tokenization, and other TradFi integration will lag. Under Trump's leadership, Fortune 100 companies will be more willing to offer cryptocurrencies to consumers, while tech companies and startups show higher risk appetite.
· AI Agents: The AI agent craze may continue until 2025. But it will eventually fade away.
· Actual Crypto and AI Integration: The influence of AI on cryptocurrencies is the main direction, but cryptocurrencies will also impact AI; truly autonomous agents will mutually transact with cryptocurrencies. Once there are permissive stablecoin regulations, you will start to see even large companies running AI agents using stablecoins for agent-to-agent payments, as they are easier to set up than bank accounts; and you will also see more and larger-scale decentralized training and inference experiments.
