Yesterday
(1), the well-known crypto data and research firm Messari released its 2025 predictions for the crypto market on its X platform, covering trends in Layer2 Blocks, AI application frameworks, and mainstream cryptocurrencies.
These trends reveal major events and focuses that may impact the market in the coming year. The following are the key points summarized by Blockcast.
One, Hyperliquid Boom Ends
Messari predicts that the market performance of Hyperliquid may have peaked. Although its current FDV (fully diluted valuation) is around $27 billion, which is 1/4 of Solana, half of Coinbase's market cap, and close to FTX's peak FDV, market attention to it has peaked in Q4 2024.
In the future, its dominance may be challenged.
Two, VIRTUAL Surpasses TAO
The VIRTUAL project in the AI field is expected to surpass TAO in FDV in Q1 2025. TAO faces daily token unlocking pressure of up to $3.3 million, while VIRTUAL is attracting market revaluation as more funds are locked in agent LPs and consumed in AI inference.
Three, Pudgy Penguins Surpasses CryptoPunks
Pudgy Penguins is expected to become the most popular PFP (profile picture) series in 2025, replacing the long-reigning CryptoPunks. Through value-accruing airdrops ($PENGU) and external protocol distributions, coupled with the launch of Abstract Chain, Pudgy Penguins' influence in Web3 and the mainstream market is rapidly growing, with its community value and cultural status significantly enhanced.
Four, Peaq May Surpass All Layer2
As a Layer2 project, Peaq, with a valuation of around $2.1 billion, is expected to challenge the top market positions in 2025. Its growth momentum comes from:
- Having a Layer1 valuation multiple;
- Capturing the DePIN (decentralized infrastructure network), RWA (tokenization of real-world assets), and AI themes;
- Driving DePIN to become one of the top three market domains;
- The realization of the Machine Economy Thesis, deeply integrating real-world AI agents with the Blocks.
Five, Ethereum Performance Will Outperform Solana
Messari predicts that Ethereum's performance in 2025 will surpass Solana, due to:
- Increased selling pressure in the Solana community, with funds gradually flowing to other altcoins;
- Continued inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs, with higher new demand in 2025;
- Investors still prefer Ethereum even if Solana launches an ETF;
- In March 2025, the liquidation of FTX assets will release 11 million SOL, further depressing its price.
Six, AI Agent Framework Will Peak in Q1 2025
The market hype for AI Agent projects is expected to peak in Q1 2025 and then decline rapidly. Messari states that these frameworks have failed to prove their product-market fit and lack stable user demand. Unlike the DeFi boom, AI Agents lack sustained market appeal, and the speculative frenzy may collapse.
