Here is the English translation of the text, with the specified terms retained as is:
The readers, did you receive a lot of blessings for the new year? Bitcoin closed the year 2024 with an upward trend of around 120%, and the calendar has moved on to 2025, but the fact is that in the crypto market where there are no holidays, dividing the price movement by year is not very meaningful. The mixed sentiment at the end of the year is continuing as the market mood.
Last week, the Bit market was adjusted to the 91,500 dollar level at one point, but as the weekend approached, the price gradually recovered and rebounded to 99,000 dollars. As of 1 a.m. on the 6th, when this article was written, it is fluctuating around the 98,100 dollar level. In terms of weekly prices, it has been in a sideways-correction mode for the 4th week, with a gradual slope. In particular, it should be noted that the weekly price bottom is continuously being lowered.
Last week, as it had fallen to 91,500 dollars, there were many articles analyzing the possibility of falling below 90,000 dollars. The on-chain data analysis platform Crypto.com analyzed that the price support line for Bit is around 80,000 dollars, and
there was also a forecast that it is uncertain whether Bit can recover the 95,000 dollar level.
Fortunately,
with nearly 1 billion dollars of buy-side pressure in the first two days of the new year, Bit was able to secure the 95,000 dollar support line. However,
the BlackRock Bit physical ETF (IBIT) recorded the largest daily outflow of 330.8 million dollars on January 2nd, and the market fell back into a quagmire.
In the midst of this, on Friday, the 3rd (local time), a warm rebound came from the US stock market, including the Nasdaq. Bit price was also able to rise above 98,000 dollars. However, it is still too early to be relieved.
As the price flow needs to maintain above the 98,500 dollar level for Bit to re-challenge the 100,000 dollar level.
The cryptocurrency market, which has welcomed the new year, has shown a mix of good and bad news. First, as a positive factor,
it was reported that Morgan Stanley, one of the leading investment banks on Wall Street, is considering providing direct cryptocurrency services through an online brokerage. Wall Street investment banks are expecting the US government's regulations on banks' cryptocurrency-related services to become clearer under the Trump administration.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), which has been directly injecting buying pressure into the Bit market for several months, announced a plan to issue an additional $2 billion worth of stocks to buy Bit. Although Bit broke through its previous all-time high in December, the price is currently about 10% lower, so it is still uncertain whether MSTR's stock issuance will proceed smoothly.
It was also reported that the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX is expected to repay a significant portion of the creditor funds within 60 days. This creditor fund is mostly the deposits of cryptocurrency investors who were in FTX. In other words, the cryptocurrency investment funds locked up in FTX are being unlocked.
The industry is analyzing that this repayment could trigger a bullish market for coins in the first half of 2025.
Now, let's look at the negative factors. First,
with the implementation of the EU's MiCA law on December 30th last year, USDT can no longer be used across Europe. According to the MiCA law, in Europe, issuers must comply with strict standards to provide stablecoin services, and Euro-based stablecoins must be used. However, Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer in the world, does not meet these criteria, so a temporary liquidity gap is expected.
In the US, despite the imminent inauguration of President Trump, regulatory risks for cryptocurrencies still remain.
Coinbase, the leading US cryptocurrency exchange, recently released a letter from the FDIC, which instructed banks to cease cryptocurrency-related activities due to regulatory uncertainty.
The US Internal Revenue Service also recently announced new cryptocurrency tax guidelines on December 27th, stating that
DeFi intermediary protocols must collect and report detailed transaction information on customers and trades starting this year. This could potentially lead to the contraction of the DeFi market.
Many investors are most interested in which coins will perform the best this year. While there are various opinions on this, the forecast that the growth center will be the cryptocurrency physical ETF market this year is being strongly suggested.
In this regard, the Solana physical ETF is attracting attention.
The CEO of ETF analysis site ETF Store, Nate Geraci, predicted that the launch of a Solana physical ETF will be one of the 5 changes to occur in the cryptocurrency ETF market this year. It is highly likely that Solana will be the next protagonist after Bit and Ethereum.
The prediction market platform Polymarket estimates the probability of the SEC approving a Solana ETF by 2025 at 85%, and the prevailing forecast is that the approval will come before August.
US Employment Indicators and Federal Reserve Officials' Remarks to Watch
This week, the market will see the release of a slew of indicators related to the US labor market. First, on Wednesday (8th), the US Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Indicator will be released. On the 9th and 10th, initial jobless claims, the US non-farm payroll, and the US unemployment rate will be announced.
As the US Federal Reserve changed its monetary policy stance to a tightening one at the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the remarks of Fed officials will also have a significant impact. On Tuesday (7th) and Friday (10th), Thomas Barkin, the President of the Richmond Fed, will make public remarks. Notably, on the 10th, Michelle Bowman, a prominent hawk on the Fed, is also scheduled to give a public speech.
In addition to these officials' public remarks, the minutes of the December FOMC meeting, to be released in the early morning of the 9th, are also expected to have a significant influence. Depending on how Fed officials perceive the current economic, inflationary, and employment situations, the price of Bit, which is sensitive to liquidity, can also be significantly affected. I wish all readers successful investments this week.
