Jinse Weekly is a weekly blockchain industry summary column launched by Jinse Finance, covering key news of the week, mining information, project dynamics, technological progress and other industry dynamics. This is the news weekly, which will give you an overview of the major events in the blockchain industry this week.
Headline
▌Biden Orders Federal Agencies to Close on January 9, 2025
On December 30, local time, US President Biden ordered all federal government departments and agencies to close on January 9, 2025, as a tribute to the late 39th US President Jimmy Carter, who passed away on the 29th. Biden said in a statement that the heads of federal government departments and agencies can decide to keep some offices and facilities open for reasons of national security, defense or other public needs.
▌Do Kwon Extradited to the US
According to Bloomberg, the Prime Minister of Montenegro, Milojko Spajic, said on Tuesday that Montenegro has completed the extradition of Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon and handed him over to the US. He posted on the X platform that this extradition demonstrates our firm commitment to international justice and the rule of law. Do Kwon is facing dual prosecution in New York and Seoul for the $40 billion loss caused by the 2022 TerraUSD stablecoin collapse. He was previously arrested in Montenegro using a forged passport.
▌Ethereum May Outperform Bitcoin in 2025
Steno Research said in a report on Sunday that Bitcoin's price is expected to rise from around $94,000 to at least $150,000 next year, while ETH's price will more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. The ETH/BTC exchange rate is expected to rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trend of the previous cycle, with Altcoins becoming the focus of attention.
Policy
▌Analysis: MiCA Implementation Brings Uncertainty to USDT Compliance, May Impact EU Crypto Market Landscape
The EU's MiCA regulation has officially taken effect, but Tether's USDT has not yet obtained compliance certification, raising concerns about its future in the EU market. MiCA imposes strict requirements on stablecoin issuers, which may lead to the withdrawal of major stablecoins like Tether from the EU market due to capital reserve and liquidity requirements.
▌Judge Postpones CFTC vs Gemini Trial to January 21
New York Judge Alvin Hellerstein has decided to postpone the civil case between the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and Gemini Trust Company to January 21, 2024, from the original date of January 13. The case stems from CFTC's 2022 allegations that Gemini provided false or misleading statements when applying for a Bitcoin futures contract in 2017.
▌Blockchain Association Sues IRS over Digital Asset Reporting Rules
The Blockchain Association and the Texas Blockchain Association have jointly sued the IRS over new rules requiring crypto platforms (including decentralized exchanges) to report digital asset transaction information, with the requirement to disclose taxpayer information and sales revenue starting in 2027.
▌Hong Kong Legislator: HKSAR Government Can Consider Establishing a DAO Licensing Regime
Hong Kong Legislative Council and Web3 and Virtual Asset Development Forum Committee Chairman Ng Chau-pei suggested that since DAOs lack legal entities, the HKSAR government can consider establishing a DAO licensing regime similar to the securities industry, requiring licensed DAOs to clarify internal individual relationships and appoint responsible officers.
▌Syria Proposes Legalizing Bitcoin to Promote Economic Recovery
The Syrian Economic Research Center has proposed a plan urging the transitional government to adopt Bitcoin and other digital assets to address hyperinflation, stabilize the economy and attract global investment.
▌US Prosecutors Bring Additional Money Laundering Conspiracy Charges Against Do Kwon
The US Attorney's Office revealed that Terraform Labs co-founder Do Kwon, after being extradited from Montenegro to the US, is now facing an additional charge of conspiracy to commit money laundering.
Blockchain Applications
▌Musk: Community Notes is Fully Decentralized and Open-Source
Musk stated on X that the best way to ensure the accuracy of the Community Notes system is to become a contributor. He emphasized that the system is fully decentralized and open-source, including the code and data, and any manipulation will be easily detected.
▌Phala Network Founder: eve Will Reference aiPool and Introduce a Fourth-Generation Token Issuance Model
Phala Network founder Marvin Tong posted on his social platform that eve will reference aiPool and introduce a fourth-generation token issuance model. The new model will allocate 65% of new tokens to whitelisted contributors based on their confirmed contributions, 20% to create liquidity pools with SPORE on Metaora/Raydium, 10% held by the new AI agent for its initial operations and autonomy, and 5% sent as profit sharing to the parent AI's wallet.
▌Trader Eugene: PENGU is Basically a Replica of APE
Here is the English translation of the text, with the content inside <> retained and not translated:Trader Eugene posted on the X platform that PENGU is basically a clone of APE, except that it has a well-functioning team that knows how to execute projects under the Luca Netz, and it has an upcoming important catalyst, which is the launch of the Abstract Chain in January. Eugene said: "I like the fact that we have already run a complete airdrop fractal, and the early participants have basically completely exited this stage, so now we can get proper price discovery in 2025."
▌Floki DAO unanimously passed the ETP funding proposal
Floki DAO unanimously passed a proposal to use 16.3 billion Floki tokens as liquidity to support the Exchange Traded Product (ETP) that will be launched in the first quarter of 2025. The product will be listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange, providing a channel for traditional European financial investors to access the Floki token.
▌Starknet: Stwo Prover to launch on Starknet in April 2025
The Ethereum Layer 2 network Starknet announced on the X platform that the Stwo Prover will launch on Starknet in April 2025, which is about 940 times more efficient than the current Starknet prover, making proving no longer a bottleneck.
Cryptocurrencies
▌ZachXBT: Blockchain Bandit moved 51,000 ETH, worth $172 million, after 2 years of dormancy
The hacker Blockchain Bandit mainly stole 51,000 Ethereum by successfully guessing weak private keys. After nearly two years of dormancy, blockchain investigator ZachXBT said in a Telegram post on December 30 that all 51,000 Ethereum were transferred from 10 wallet addresses to the multi-signature address "0xC451D542". These funds were transferred in batches of 5,000 Ethereum between 8:54 pm UTC and 9:18 pm UTC on December 30.
▌Yesterday, GBTC had a net outflow of $134.5 million, and ETHE had a net outflow of $17.4 million
According to Farside Investors' monitoring data, the capital data of the US spot Bitcoin ETF and spot Ethereum ETF on December 30 was as follows:
Spot Bitcoin ETF: GBTC had a net outflow of $134.5 million, BTC had a net outflow of $31.7 million, and BITB had a net outflow of $31.4 million;
Spot Ethereum ETF: ETHE had a net outflow of $17.4 million, and ETH had a net outflow of $13.8 million.
▌CZ: We don't predict trends, we follow trends and try to contribute
Binance founder CZ posted on the X platform, "People often ask me, what's the next hot thing in crypto? To be honest, I don't know. I try to help as many projects as possible and see where they take us. We don't predict trends, we follow trends (and try to contribute)."
▌QCP: Bitcoin's year-end upward momentum has weakened, institutional allocation may be key in 2025
QCP Capital pointed out that as the year-end approaches, the momentum of BTC has weakened significantly, with the upward trend limited by selling pressure. Since December 19, spot ETFs have seen net outflows of $1.8 billion, and MicroStrategy's BTC purchases have slowed significantly. Looking ahead to 2025, the key catalyst may appear in January, as institutions will readjust their asset allocations, and the proportion of institutional Bitcoin allocations is expected to increase, consolidating its market dominance, stabilizing spot volatility, and driving growth in demand for downside protection.
▌CryptoQuant: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit a new high of $31 billion, indicating rising buying pressure
CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost wrote that Binance's stablecoin reserves reached $31 billion on December 11, a new all-time high. It's worth noting that Binance's stablecoin reserves were only $7 billion in June 2023, and have since grown by nearly five times. The increase in stablecoin reserves usually means that buying pressure is rising. The current reserves of around $30 billion indicate that investors are still actively engaged in the market and may be maintaining strong buying pressure.
▌Prime Minister of Montenegro: Welcome legal crypto and AI companies, zero tolerance for fraud
Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic posted on the X platform: "Our country welcomes innovative and legal crypto, AI and other tech entrepreneurs, but we have zero tolerance for fraudulent behavior." Previously, Bloomberg reported that Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said the extradition procedures for Do Kwon in the US have been completed, and Milojko Spajic said this extradition demonstrates a firm commitment to international justice and the rule of law.
▌Hack VC: Web2 companies will return to the crypto market in 2025
Hack VC expects to see more large-scale acquisitions in 2025, as the bull market continues and web2 companies interested in cryptocurrencies may return. Hack VC co-founder and managing partner Ed Roman said: "Due to the NFT crash and the FTX collapse, these Web2 buyers have been inactive in the past few years, but we expect them to return as crypto enters another bull run, and since these companies often lack crypto expertise or technology, acquiring companies is easier than developing it themselves."
▌NFT total sales to reach $8.8 billion in 2024, up 1.1% from 2023
According to CryptoSlam data, the total NFT sales in 2024 will reach $8.8 billion, up 1.1% from 2023, indicating that the NFT market remains active. Ethereum and Bitcoin blockchains each accounted for $3.1 billion in sales, ranking first, with Solana in third place with $1.4 billion in sales.
▌Aave's total deposits reach a record high of $33.4 billion
The total net deposits on the decentralized finance platform Aave have surpassed $33.4 billion, setting a new all-time high, exceeding the 2021 bull market level. In 2024, Aave will launch version 4 and expand its GHO stablecoin to multiple blockchain networks. In addition, Aave has added support for BNB Chain, Scroll, ZKsync Era and ether.fi, and plans to introduce Sonic network, Mantle, Linea, BOB, Spider Chain and Aptos network in 2025, subject to community approval.
▌44.32 BTC flowed into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, worth $4.31 million
According to Arkham's monitoring, around 00:45 Beijing time today, 44.32 BTC flowed from a Coinbase Prime hot wallet address into the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, worth $4.31 million.
▌VanEck research head: Over 77% chance of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025
The crypto prediction platform Polymarket previously stated that the likelihood of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 is around 77%. VanEck's research head Matthew Sigel said this forecast is "underestimated".
In June 2024, VanEck and competitor asset manager 21Shares sought regulatory approval in the US to list a spot Solana ETF. In November last year, shortly after Trump's victory in the US presidential election, Matthew Sigel said the likelihood of the US approving a SOL ETF in 2025 is "very high".
▌DWF Labs: Meme coins have evolved into a vertical market, the growth trend will continue in 2025
In its year-end report, DWF Labs pointed out that meme coins have evolved into a "complex vertical market", representing "unprecedented" opportunities to create value. The company said the combination of "social dynamics" and "financial markets" is not just a temporary fad, but represents a new investment paradigm, such as Dogecoin, which started as a satirical comment on cryptocurrencies and has now developed into a complex vertical market, attracting a large amount of capital flow and institutional attention.
In addition, DWF Labs also pointed out that the market capitalization of meme coins has surged from $20 billion to $120 billion, an increase of 500%, and the company believes this trend is likely to continue in the new year.
Important Economic Dynamics
▌The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in January 2024 is 88.8%
According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January 2023 is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 11.2%. By March 2023, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 46.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 48.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 5.4%.
▌The US dollar index rose 0.13% on December 30
The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose 0.13% that day, closing at 108.132 in the late market. As of the close of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 euro was exchanged for 1.0397 US dollars, lower than the 1.0428 US dollars of the previous trading day; 1 British pound was exchanged for 1.2544 US dollars, lower than the 1.2582 US dollars of the previous trading day. 1 US dollar was exchanged for 157.09 Japanese yen, lower than the 157.94 Japanese yen of the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 0.9040 Swiss franc, higher than the 0.9018 Swiss franc of the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 1.4359 Canadian dollar, lower than the 1.4411 Canadian dollar of the previous trading day; 1 US dollar was exchanged for 11.0249 Swedish krona, higher than the 11.0011 Swedish krona of the previous trading day.
▌Federal Reserve's Daly: Cryptocurrencies should not be equated with gold, and they are still far from becoming "currency"
San Francisco Fed President Daly said that Cryptocurrencies should be viewed as a separate asset class, rather than being equated with gold as is often the case, and that Cryptocurrencies are complex and not yet ready to become "currency". "I think Cryptocurrencies are a complex thing, and the service we need to provide for everyone is to truly interpret what it means, and once we do that, we can define it," Daly said in a podcast. "It can be a currency, it can be a medium of exchange, it can also be a stock, an asset that retains or sometimes depreciates in value. We just need to define these terms." "So I don't think it's like gold," Daly added. "It sometimes has characteristics similar to gold, but I don't think it's an asset like gold."
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%
According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 88.8%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 11.2%. By March, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 47.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 47.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut is 5.3%.
