2024 may be the most important year for on-chain development after the DeFi summer. On-chain narrative investment opportunities are constantly emerging. According to the author's observation, as the concept of "everything can be a meme" becomes more and more deeply rooted, the rapid issuance of Pump Fun assets has become mainstream, and Meme can start from 0, with a market cap ceiling (not listed on top-tier CEXs) of about $1 billion on-chain.
For ordinary users, there is enough profit space on-chain, and the existence of top-tier CEXs is the last link in the exit of on-chain investment. Due to the intensification of conflicts between VCCoin and the community, new assets listed on top-tier CEXs often perform poorly; while old coins listed on top-tier CEXs are mostly in trouble, with teams' motivation not recovered or unable to keep up with market changes, waiting for unlocking to be flat.
This article is mainly based on predictions of on-chain trading and investment, focusing on on-chain interpretation, and is only the author's shallow prediction, not as any investment advice, only for consideration.
1. The ratio of DEX/CEX monthly trading volume will break through 20% for the first time
According to Blockchain data, the DEX trading volume in December 2024 exceeded $320 billion, reaching a historical high single-month, with a year-on-year growth of more than 200%; the ratio of DEX/CEX trading volume in December 2024 reached 11.64%, up from 9.55% in December 2023, and the highest ratio of DEX/CEX trading volume in 2024 reached 13.86%. The continuous optimization of on-chain tools such as CEX-led Web3 wallets may accelerate the popularization of on-chain transactions; the booming and wealth effect of Meme is one of the important factors driving users to migrate from CEX to DEX.
2. The total market value of AI Agents/AI Meme will at least exceed the peak of Non-Fungible Token, and there will definitely be AI Agents tokens with a market value exceeding $10 billion
The combination of AI Agents and tokenization is the narrative of the rapid development of the crypto market in the second half of 2024, with various AI Agents emerging one after another.
From the chatbot Truth Terminal (GOAT) opening Pandora's box of AI Agents, to the Eliza framework built by ai16z DAO and its behind-the-scenes Shaw team based on large language models to create one-click deployment of AI Agents and their tokens, it only took a few months.
The market currently has at least ai16z-Eliza, Virtuals Protocol-Game Framework, arc Framework, Zerebro-Zerepy and Dolion Framework. Among them, ai16z - Eliza and Virtuals Protocol - Game Framework have formed a strong ecological moat, and the popular sub-tokens derived from AI Agents are rapidly entering the market.
According to CoinGecko data, the total market value of AI Agent-related tokens has reached $12 billion. Among them, VIRTUAL on the Base network plays a role similar to the SOL trading pair token on the Solana network, while sub-tokens such as AIXBT, GAME, and LUNA have stimulated the prosperity of the ecosystem, giving birth to virtual mother tokens, becoming the highest market value AI Agent-related tokens, reaching $3.5 billion.
3. It is expected that 3-5 vertical issuance platforms based on Pump Fun will appear in the future
As a Launchpad deeply and quickly deployed on the Solana network, Pump Fun has become the most profitable application in the crypto world this year, with tens of thousands of Memecoin issuances every day.
With the rise of Pump Fun, other blockchain networks have also started to imitate and launch similar Memecoin issuance and trading platforms, such as SunPump on the TRON network, Uptos on the Aptos network, and Clanker based on Farcaster on the Base network.
In addition, as Memecoin gradually accumulates and "everything can be a meme", the demand for refinement is becoming stronger and stronger, and vertical Pump Fun issuance platforms are gradually emerging, such as vvaifu focusing on the issuance of AI Agents, and Pump Science focusing on DeSci. AI Agents have become an interaction worth billions of dollars, and DeSci will also see Binance's attention to DeSci and the listing and manipulation potential of the landmark protocol Bio Protocol. Essentially, it is based on different narratives and imaginations. The demand for decentralized currency issuance and rapid asset issuance is expected to generate more interpretations based on Pump Fun-based vertical issuance platforms in the future.
4. At least 5 Base ecosystem tokens will be listed on Binance spot
For comparison, Binance has already listed the perpetual contract trading of DEGEN, AERO, VIRTUAL, and AIXBT, but has not yet listed any spot of the Base ecosystem.
In terms of traffic, trading activity, and wealth effect, Base is currently the only Ethereum L2 network that can compete with Solana; unlike Solana, the ecological effect of Base will be concentrated, represented by the Virtuals and Farcaster systems, and the market value of the Virtuals ecosystem has approached $5 billion, leading in Crypto x AI Agents. The Base ecosystem may have the highest probability of being listed on the top exchange, and the first Base ecosystem spot listing on Binance is just a matter of time.
As the public chain under the compliant US exchange Coinabse, relying on the Coinbase wallet, it connects the fiat currency channel from Base-USDC to bank accounts.
As the Trump administration officially takes office, if favorable crypto policies are obstructed, Coinbase and Base may be the first exchanges and networks to benefit.
In addition, with Jesse Pollak, the head of Base, officially joining the Coinbase executive team and leading the Coinbase wallet in October, the Base network should receive further attention in Coinbase's strategic vision.
5. Hyperliquid will have multiple spot opportunities, with a market value exceeding $1 billion
Hyperliquid has greatly increased community participation and user attention through large-scale HYPE token airdrops and wealth effects. Currently, Hyperliquid's Arbitrum Bridge fund has sunk more than $2 billion in USDC, which is actually the 15th largest exchange; the total market value of the platform token HYPE once exceeded $10 billion, with an FDV of over $30 billion.
From the development path of CEXs, especially relatively young CEXs, they mainly start from contracts that are excellent in performance and liquidity, but the real brand moat is the wealth effect brought by exclusive spot.
The HIP-1 and HIP-2 standards of Hyperliquid make it possible to introduce exclusive assets, which is a capability that on-chain exchanges that have tried to move from contracts to spot trading in the past did not have. The HIP-1 standard allows tokens to be traded directly on-chain, while the HIP-2 standard supports the market performance of these tokens by embedding liquidity at the time of issuance.
Given the high difficulty and high price of listing on top CEXs, auctioning spot seats to list on Hyperliquid has become a good choice. It is known that projects that have completed auctions but have not yet officially listed on Hyperliquid include Solv Protocol (SOLV) and Azuki-Anime (ANIME).
Currently, the main market value and trading volume of Hyperliquid's spot are concentrated in HYPE, and there are only two projects with a market value exceeding $100 million.
With the high market value of HYPE, more funds are needed to drive the market; the platform and some excellent exclusive projects work together to create the wealth effect of exclusive assets, which is obviously higher, and HYPE will ultimately benefit from the improvement of Hyperliquid's trading volume and reputation.
