Analysis: For the third consecutive year, we saw unusually high alpha flow in short-term Bitcoin call options in the week of January 10
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Odaily reports that cryptocurrency derivatives trader Gordon Grant emphasized the importance of Bitcoin's recent breakout and mentioned derivatives indicators. Grant said: "We are seeing abnormal 'high alpha' flow in short-term Bitcoin call options again for the third consecutive year in the week of January 10th." He pointed out that over 1,000 January 7th call options were traded at a strike price of $103,000 over the past weekend. Grant compared this to the situation at the beginning of 2023, when similar activity in short-term call options preceded Bitcoin's explosive rise, thanks to volatility quickly repricing from 20% to 30% to over 60%. He also noted that in January 2024, heavy call option activity ahead of the launch of BlackRock's IBIT on January 10th drove Bitcoin from $40,000 to $48,000. He also said the options term structure shows a premium on dates after the Trump inauguration, which may reflect traders pricing in potential market volatility events or gamma-driven positioning. The key question now is whether this signals the start of a sustained Bitcoin rally in 2025, or if this is just a short-term excitement driven by speculative bets on another Trump-related event, similar to the Bitcoin Nashville event last July. "The term structure of volatility and skew seems to suggest that investors are seeking longer-term gains this year, not just the first week's rally," Grant said. (The Block)
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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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