In the online communication on Saturday, many readers asked if it is not too late to participate in the AI agent track now?
I think it really depends on the investor's judgment on the AI agent track and their personal investment style.
In my view, the development of AI agents is still in the early to mid-stage, and there is still some distance from the peak.
There are three main reasons:
First, the AI agent track is no longer like the early days, as there are now several tokens with market capitalizations of tens of billions, and not just one. This indicates that the track has already shown a clear head-group effect.
Secondly, the overall cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its peak. Since the big bull market has not yet reached its peak, the sub-sectors, especially the newly emerging ones like the AI agent track, still have room for further development.
My view on the peak of the entire cryptocurrency market is still the same as before: I estimate that the peak of this round of the market may come between March and August this year, and the risk will be higher after August.
Therefore, the peak of this round of the AI agent track may also be between March and August, but the specific timing is difficult to judge.
Finally, just looking at the AI agent sub-sector, the current development is still vibrant, with new concepts, new ideas, and new technologies emerging every day.
For example, in the framework-type projects that have been very popular in the ecosystem, in addition to the existing framework-type projects that are continuing to develop, a new rising project @hyperfy_io has just emerged in the past two days, and its token market value has reached $200 million.
The explosive growth of a single project may have a bit of a bubble, but it also indicates that technological innovation is still emerging.
In addition, in the many sub-sectors where AI agents can be well combined (such as DeFi, games, etc.), there are still no dominant head projects. I have always been looking forward to seeing highlights in these sub-sectors.
Therefore, taking these factors into consideration, I believe there will be new highlights and opportunities in the future.
When it comes to specific project investments, there are differences among the projects in the AI agent ecosystem:
For example, the head projects like Virtual and AI16Z have already reached high valuations. Virtual's market value has exceeded $4 billion, and AI16Z's market value has exceeded $2 billion.
In previous articles, I have estimated that this round of the AI agent track may see several head projects with a market value of $10 billion.
Compared to a $10 billion market value, Virtual and AI16Z still have some upside potential, but the potential is limited.
Apart from these obvious head projects, other sub-sector AI agents (such as functional AI agents) still have considerable room for growth. Except for a few AI agents (such as AIXBT) that have very obvious advantages, I believe the other AI agents, even if they have advantages, may still be surpassed in the future. In addition, new projects have been emerging very rapidly in recent days.
This all indicates that the sub-sectors still have great potential to be explored.
In this situation, the personal investment style of investors is very important.
If an investor is very cautious, they may think the head projects have limited potential and the sub-projects are difficult to judge, so they may not participate.
If an investor is willing to take risks, they may still be willing to participate in this track.
Both of these decisions are acceptable. Regardless of which, the most important thing is not to have anxiety, and not to feel that the opportunity has been missed.
I will still actively participate in the AI agent track while keeping the risk under control.
My current focus is mainly on the sub-sectors, picking new potential projects. I will pay more attention to projects with a total market value between $10 million and $30 million, and try to find suitable and promising projects in this range.
Some investors have also asked: Can I switch positions and exchange token A for AI agent token B?
I think this still depends on the investor's own estimate of the potential of these two tokens. If the investor is confident that the potential of B is greater than A, they can switch, because the AI agent track is currently the most promising track; if they are hesitant, unclear or unsure, I suggest not switching.
