The annual price is expected to hit $200,000, but the "Trump effect" may not take effect quickly.
Author: Wenser
Source: Odaily
At the beginning of 2025, the market seems to have started a gradual price recovery in the midst of fluctuations.
Around 10 a.m. today, the BTC price once rose above $99,000, and is currently around $98,800; ETH has risen from around $3,300 on January 1 to above $3,600; SOL has also gradually risen from around $180 on January 1 to above $210. As the date of Trump's inauguration as President of the United States approaches, market sentiment is also gradually warming up. Odaily will summarize the recent market views in this article for readers' reference.
Buying pressure is still continuing: Buying funds at the national, institutional and corporate levels exist in the long term
The price rebound is naturally inseparable from the influx of buying pressure. After the "Christmas volatility", the buying power in the new year still seems to exist in the long term and is increasingly firm.
Data: The cumulative net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $35.91 billion
According to SoSoValue data, as of January 3, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $111.46 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value to Bitcoin's total market value) reached 5.72%, with a cumulative net inflow of $35.91 billion; the total net asset value of Ethereum spot ETFs was $13.03 billion, and the ETF net asset ratio (market value to Ethereum's total market value) was 3%, with a cumulative net inflow of $2.64 billion.
In addition, institutional reports also show confidence in the continued net inflow of funds into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in 2025.
Steno Research: Expects net inflows of $48 billion and $28.5 billion into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs respectively by 2025; BTC to rise to at least $150,000
In a recent report, Steno Research stated that its bullish forecasts for BTC and ETH prices reflect "the unprecedented favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies, a supportive macroeconomic environment marked by falling interest rates and improved liquidity, and the historically strong performance of Bitcoin after the halving."
It also said, "In addition, institutional adoption is expected to reach unprecedented levels, and the large influx of funds into US Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs will further drive this trend."
Steno estimates that the net inflows into BTC and ETH ETFs will reach $48 billion and $28.5 billion respectively by 2025. In addition, the report states that DApp TVL is expected to exceed $300 billion by 2025, far exceeding the 2021 high of about $180 billion.
Previously, Steno Research stated in a report that Bitcoin's price is expected to rise from around $94,000 to at least $150,000 by 2025, while ETH's price will more than double from $3,400 to at least $8,000. That is, the ETH/BTC exchange rate will rise from the current 0.0357 to 0.06 within the next 12 months, similar to the price trend of the previous cycle, and Altcoins will become the focus of attention.
El Salvador has added 5 more BTC since the new year, with a current holding of about 6,009 BTC
According to on-chain data today, El Salvador has added 5 more BTC since the new year, bringing its total holdings to about 6,009 BTC.
MARA CEO: Will continue to increase Bitcoin holdings in 2025, currently holding over 40,000 BTC
According to the CEO of Bitcoin miner MARA Digital, the company will continue to increase Bitcoin on its balance sheet in 2025.
MARA currently holds a total of 44,893 BTC, worth over $4 billion.
A user on Deribit bought 150 BTC worth of $97,000 call options expiring on January 10
According to Lin Chen, Deribit's Asia-Pacific business manager, the largest BTC block option trade today was: a user paid $559,000 to purchase 150 BTC worth of $97,000 call options expiring this Friday, January 10.
Standard Chartered: BTC price to reach $200,000 by 2025, MicroStrategy to buy more BTC
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, predicted that the price of Bitcoin will double. He previously stated in a report that he expects Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025.
In addition, he expects institutional investment in Bitcoin to continue at or exceed the pace of 2024 next year. The bank noted that since the beginning of this year, institutional Bitcoin purchases have reached 683,000 BTC, mainly through US Bitcoin spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, a software company that also invests in Bitcoin. Geoffrey Kendrick said MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases should reach or exceed 2024 levels by 2025. He also added that as the incoming Trump administration is expected to reform the regulations of so-called "traditional finance" (TradFi) companies on digital currency investments, pension funds should also start to include Bitcoin in their portfolios through US Bitcoin spot ETFs starting next year. Kendrick pointed out: "Even a small allocation of the $40 trillion in US retirement funds would significantly drive up the price of Bitcoin. We would be more optimistic if Bitcoin is adopted more quickly by US retirement funds, global sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) or a potential US strategic reserve fund."
In addition, many listed companies are still steadily carrying out their own "Bitcoin accumulation plans".
Blockstream founder: MicroStrategy may have already increased its BTC holdings
Blockstream founder Adam Back wrote: "I believe MicroStrategy has completed its Bitcoin purchases, but must announce it to the market through an 8-K filing before or after normal trading hours in the stock market."
Previously, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has been releasing Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week.
Statistics: 11 listed companies have increased their Bitcoin holdings in the past week
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley wrote: "According to data compiled by HODL15Capital, 11 publicly traded companies have purchased more Bitcoin since last Monday. In 2025, a large number of companies will join the Bitcoin standard. Michael Saylor has scripted a movement."
Metaplanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by 2025
As a Japanese listed company that has tasted the "sweetness" of the Bitcoin reserve plan, Metaplanet's buying pressure will also continue.
The company's CEO, Simon Gerovich, recently stated that this year's goal is to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 10,000 BTC by utilizing its "most value-enhancing capital market tools", with the aim of promoting the adoption of Bitcoin in Japan and globally, and "expanding Metaplanet's influence in Japan and the Bitcoin ecosystem".
Gerovich said: "We are not just creating a company, but driving a movement."
Compared to the continued growth in buying pressure, the "selling pressure" has also eased to a considerable extent after entering 2025.
Selling pressure eases: Both exchange inflows and miner outflows have declined significantly
As the main source of selling pressure, exchange inflows and miner outflows have long been seen as reliable indicators, and have recently seen a significant decline.
Since November 2024, the inflow of BTC to exchanges and the outflow from miners have decreased significantly, indicating a reduction in selling pressure
Since November 2024, the inflow of Bitcoin to exchanges (the total amount of BTC transferred to exchanges) and the outflow from miners (the amount of BTC sent to exchanges by miners) have decreased significantly, indicating a reduction in selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, the BTC exchange inflow reached a peak of 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024, with exchange inflow activity being highly active for about two months prior. In December 2024, the BTC exchange inflow decreased, but it was still quite significant, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to exchanges ranging from 11,000 to 79,000 per day.
The decrease in exchange inflow is accompanied by a decrease in miner outflow, indicating a reduction in selling pressure from Bitcoin miners, who often sell their BTC holdings to cover operating expenses. The outflow of funds from miners has been declining since the historic price increase of Bitcoin during the period after Trump's election last year, when miners profited.
CryptoQuant data shows that the outflow peaked on November 11, when miners sent 25,367 BTC to exchanges, at a time when the Bitcoin price reached around $88,000. On January 1, 2025, miners sent 5,489 BTC to exchanges, on January 2 they sent 5,748 BTC, and on January 3 they sent 2,133 BTC.
The Macro-Micro Prediction Tug-of-War: Cautiously Optimistic and Highly Optimistic Camps Holding Their Ground
As for the predictions on the macro level of the cryptocurrency market and the individual views on the micro level, both cautious optimism and high optimism currently coexist. There are also traders who believe that they should "sell in a timely manner to lock in profits and stop losses at the wave level".
Greeks.live: European and American users are gradually returning from the holidays, and market activity is picking up
On January 3, Adam from the Greeks.live Research Institute wrote: "20,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.69, and a maximum pain point of $97,000, with a notional value of $1.93 billion. 206,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.81, and a maximum pain point of $3,400, with a notional value of $710 million. Today is the first weekly options expiration of 2025, with a total of $2.6 billion in options expiring. European and American users are gradually returning from their holidays, and the overall market activity is picking up. However, the theme of this week is still adjustment, with obvious market differentiation, and no sustained hot spots have yet emerged.
In the second half of this month, Trump will officially take office as the new US president, and the entire market is very optimistic about 2025. However, the recent obvious correction in the US stock market has also brought a lot of uncertainty to the market, and the interest rate meeting this month is most likely to maintain no rate cuts, and there is no more positive news in the short term."
US Investment Bank View: Bitcoin Market Cap Expected to Reach a Quarter of Gold by Year-End, BTC Price to Break $220,000
US investment bank HC Wainwright expects the Bitcoin price to reach $225,000 per coin by the end of 2025, which would mean a Bitcoin market cap of $4.5 trillion, accounting for about 25% of the gold market value.
Finance Professor: Supportive US Regulation Will Boost BTC, $200,000 Price Completely Possible
Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex, believes that a Bitcoin price of $200,000 is possible. Carol Alexander stated, "I'm more optimistic about 2025 than I've ever been before," and added that Bitcoin's price "could easily reach $200,000, but there's no sign that volatility will decrease." Alexander clarified that she does not actually own any Bitcoin herself. "By next summer, I expect it to be trading in a range of $150,000 plus or minus $50,000." Supportive US regulation will boost Bitcoin, but the lack of regulation of crypto exchanges will continue to cause volatility, as high leverage trading will lead to price fluctuations.
It is reported that Carol Alexander has a good track record in predicting Bitcoin prices, as she predicted last year that Bitcoin would reach $100,000 in 2024, which indeed happened.
Mining Executive: Bitcoin May Reach $180,000-$190,000 Peak in 2025, but with Occasional Steep Corrections
Youwei Yang, Chief Economist of the cryptocurrency mining company BIT Mining (BTCM), predicts that the price of Bitcoin in 2025 will be between $180,000 and $190,000, but he also remains cautious, believing that the price may experience corrections.
He pointed out: "Bitcoin may see significant upward momentum and occasional steep corrections in 2025. In moments of market shocks, such as major stock market crashes, Bitcoin may temporarily drop to around $80,000. However, the overall trend is expected to remain bullish. Based on these dynamic forecasts, Bitcoin may reach a peak of $180,000 to $190,000 in 2025, which is consistent with the historical cycle pattern and the trend of more mainstream institutional investment in cryptocurrencies."
Ledn Chief Investment Officer: Predicts BTC to Reach $160,000 by Year-End or Early Next Year
John Glover, Chief Investment Officer of the cryptocurrency lending company Ledn, said that Bitcoin may pull back to $89,000 and then rebound, reaching $125,000 by the end of the first quarter.
Glover said that from that point, Bitcoin may pull back again to $100,000, and then make a run at $160,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026, a more conservative prediction than the $180,000 and $200,000 forecasts from asset managers VanEck and Bitwise.
Analyst: Bitcoin Expected to Maintain Range-Bound Trading, May Climb to $105,000 in January
Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to climb to $105,000 in January. Bitfinex analysts stated, "We expect Bitcoin to maintain a range-bound market as investors seek to deploy capital across a range of different asset classes. We forecast that by the end of January, Bitcoin will be trading in the range of $95,000 to $110,000."
On January 20, the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump may become an important catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new US administration include more crypto-friendly regulatory policies and improved US economic policies. However, according to the Bitfinex analysts' view, Trump's inauguration may not immediately trigger a price increase in cryptocurrencies. "We expect the new US administration to provide more clarity on cryptocurrency policy, but we do not believe the inauguration itself will be a significant price appreciation event, but rather lay the groundwork for a less obstructed path for cryptocurrencies in the US."
Placeholder Partner: BTC, ETH, and SOL Look Strong Regardless of Timeframe
Placeholder partner Chris Burniske posted that "BTC, ETH, and SOL look strong regardless of timeframe, and will likely rally again soon."
He also added that, similar to previous trends, Meme coins have been a good indicator of increased risk appetite in the past few weeks.
1co nfirmation Founder: Expects Countries to Attempt to Adopt MicroStrategy's Strategy of Accumulating Bitcoin
1co nfirmation founder Nick Tomaino wrote that it is very likely that we will soon see countries competing to try to adopt MicroStrategy's strategy:
- Issuing government bonds of different maturities (5-year, 7-year, 10-year, etc.)
- Using the bond proceeds to purchase cryptocurrencies
- Repaying the loans on time according to the loan term
At the same time, he indicated that the problem now is not whether countries will do so, but what kind of cryptocurrencies they will buy, possibly starting with BTC, but the next one will be ETH, any sufficiently decentralized currency can participate, and the government bond market is larger than the stock market.
Bearish Outlook and Take Profit Trading: Mature Views of Well-known Research Institutions and Traders
Compared to the optimistic attitude towards BTC, the market's views on ETH and Altcoins are relatively more rational, and here we have selected some relatively representative views to present.
10x Research: Expects ETH's performance in 2025 to lag BTC again, not optimistic about Pectra upgrade
Recently, Markus Thielen, research director of 10x Research, said in a recent market report: "While we cannot rule out the possibility of new catalysts emerging, we would not be surprised if Ethereum fails to achieve a meaningful rebound by 2025. While we understand Ethereum's volatility, we believe it is still a poor medium-term investment and expect ETH's performance in 2025 to lag BTC again. Therefore, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: 'Avoid'."
Thielen said that one of the key indicators to watch in 2025 will be the trend of active validators. However, he pointed out that the 1-month growth rate of Ethereum validators has turned negative, declining by about 1% in the past 30 days, raising concerns about the increased risk of more validators exiting the network. Thielen said the increase in unstaking seems "logical", and he believes Ethereum lacks "real demand" beyond staking.
He also said that the Ethereum Duncan upgrade last March (which reduced the network's gas fees and allowed it to process more transactions) was "six months late", missing the peak of the Meme coin rally, causing the market to "turn to" the "more cost-effective" Solana alternative. He is also skeptical about the Pectra upgrade scheduled for early 2025, "Of the 19 upgrades so far, only two have had a clear positive impact on the ETH price, and those upgrades occurred during Bitcoin bull markets." He added: "The three major catalysts for Ethereum in 2024 have basically all failed, and overall they have not brought any value."
Veteran Trader: Trump's Inauguration May Be the Key Trigger for the Crypto Market to Regain Bullish Momentum
Veteran cryptocurrency trader The Crypto Dog recently said that the cryptocurrency market may not see significant volatility before the inauguration of President-elect Trump on January 20. He speculates that this political event may be the key trigger for the cryptocurrency market to regain bullish momentum. He believes that Bitcoin and Altcoins may remain stagnant before the inauguration, similar to the market behavior during previous election cycles. According to his analysis, historical patterns show that Bitcoin often rises after a new US president takes office. In 2021, Bitcoin rose over 100% shortly after President Biden's inauguration. Similarly, Bitcoin also saw a major breakthrough around the 2017 inauguration.
However, he acknowledged that his prediction may be overturned if the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index) continues to rise. He emphasized that since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin has shown a strong correlation with the traditional market, indicating that the sustained strength of the stock market may bring a more optimistic outlook for cryptocurrencies in January.
It is worth mentioning that with about two weeks to go before Trump's inauguration, the market shows that Trump-related concept coins are generally rising.
Analysis: The number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530 in the past two months
Chain analyst Ali shared Glassnode data, stating: "Over the past two months, the number of addresses holding more than 1 BTC has decreased by 18,530."
Odaily believes that this may mean that more retail investors have exited the market, and the BTC holding structure has become further concentrated.
Trader Eugene: The bull market is in the late stage, a better strategy is to take profits frequently
Well-known trader Eugene Ng Ah Sio wrote that as we enter the latter half of this cycle, the strategy to adopt should be to sell more frequently rather than hold long-term.
