In these days, readers at the end of the article mentioned a very common problem:
If you miss the earliest stage of a project, what mindset should you use to evaluate whether it is still worth participating?
An important concept mentioned in this question is "early stage".
But based on my experience, judging whether a project is still in the early stage is highly subjective, and it is difficult to have an objective standard.
It is possible that we think we have discovered something new, but in fact, the majority of the ecosystem has not yet been exposed to it; it is also possible that we think something is very new, but others in the ecosystem have already become accustomed to it.
If there is any general reference standard, my reference standard is to see how often Twitter and related media mention this track or related projects.
But what is "a lot" and what is "not a lot" is a matter of personal experience. After experiencing several bull markets in the crypto ecosystem, investors may be able to establish a subjective judgment in their minds.
In addition, you can also roughly refer to the total circulating market value (FDV) of a new project's tokens, and compare it with the token market value of relatively mature projects in the current ecosystem.
For example, if the FDV of the 100th ranked token is $1.3 billion, then if a token's FDV is less than $1 billion, I think it is likely still in a stage without a large bubble.
For such projects, I don't think price is a factor I need to worry about.
If we can't find such projects based on the above standards, missing them is just missing them, and there's no need to regret it - even if we see the projects we once looked at but let go of soar in the future, we can summarize and reflect on what aspects we can adjust our judgment criteria or learn lessons from, in order to prepare for the next battle, as there will definitely be opportunities in the future.
If we are lucky and find such a project, then the focus will not be on the price, but on the fundamentals of the project: such as the track, the team, the construction, etc.
But at this time, we may often encounter another embarrassing situation: the project information is extremely scarce, or even just a blank page.
At this time, I think the most needed is courage - to boldly participate with assets that can be completely sacrificed, according to your own ideas.
For example, when I first saw the Virtuals platform, it was in this situation.
At that time, there were no project founder interviews, and I don't remember where I saw the information about this platform, so I just curiously took a look at this platform.
After looking at it, I could roughly understand that it was using a method similar to ICO to raise funds for AI agents, but other than that, I didn't have a deeper understanding.
At that time, the top three on the Virtuals platform were three AI agents supported by the project party: LUNA, GAME and CONVO. The rest were probably a hundred or two hundred counterfeit agents.
I once said in an article that I didn't have much feeling for LUNA.
As for GAME, I just had an impression that it was related to games when I looked at its introduction, but there were no details about what this agent could do, let alone a detailed introduction.
As for CONVO, I didn't understand it either. I seemed to feel that it was related to the experience of using AI agents, but I couldn't find more information about what it was used for.
As for the remaining counterfeit agents, I just looked at a few of them and felt that they were no different from GPT, probably just with a fancy appearance.
So what was I thinking in this situation?
The first thing I thought was: VIRTUAL is the platform token, no matter whether it succeeds or not, other agents have to rely on it to be listed, so I have to buy it.
As for the others?
I couldn't believe those counterfeit goods without any background, so I could only choose the three agents supported by the platform.
This was my logic.
I had no deep understanding, no insider information, and no foresight.
Around the end of December, the GAME project suddenly announced that they had developed an AI agent framework that was a competitor to ELIZA, and since then the project token has soared.
But how could I have known that when I bought GAME?
It was completely the result of bold participation.
This Saturday (January 11) at 7:30 pm, I will share the content of the last half hour of the previous sharing.
If you have any questions, please ask them directly during the live exchange.
The online exchange link is as follows:
https://x.com/Dao_Views/status/1876794197891530776
