I. Attention Value - Market Highlights
1. Market Trends
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Preview of US December Non-Farm Payroll Data: Slower Growth but Market Still Focused
Over the past few months, the US job market has become more complex, with significant fluctuations in non-farm payroll data in October and November due to the impact of hurricanes and the Boeing mass strike. The December employment data to be released today is expected to more accurately reflect the current economic situation. According to FactSet analyst forecasts, December is expected to see 153,000 new jobs added, down from 227,000 in November and 36,000 in October. Boston College economist Brian Bethune is more optimistic, estimating the new job additions could be between 165,000 and 175,000. He pointed out that Fed Chair Powell will view this data as a "Goldilocks" balance, not too hot to raise inflation concerns, but not too cold to suggest an economic recession. If the data falls within this range, Powell will feel reassured. Although the market is eagerly awaiting the non-farm report, early indicators suggest employment growth may be slowing. For example, the ADP report showed that private sector job additions in December were only 122,000, lower than market expectations.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Analyst Suggests Bitcoin Funding Rate Briefly Turning Negative May Signal a Local Bottom
Analyst James Van Straten noted that when Bitcoin price approaches $100,000, market sentiment typically turns bullish, with investors actively driving the bull market. However, when the price approaches $90,000, the market sentiment may turn bearish, as seen in Thursday's trading. Bitcoin's price often moves towards the "maximum pain zone" between these two price ranges. During bull markets, Bitcoin usually has a positive funding rate as traders generally expect the price to continue rising. Similarly, in bear markets, as the price bottom gradually forms over time, the price can rebound quickly, prompting traders to rush to close their positions. In these cases, a local bottom often emerges. Recent data shows the funding rate briefly turned slightly negative at -0.001%, the first time since November 2024. This change triggered deleveraging and a shift in market sentiment, after which Bitcoin's price rebounded above $94,000.
2. Hot Events
(1) Macroeconomic Environment:
l Fed Official Warns: Future Rate Cuts Need More Caution as Inflation Risks Rise
A Federal Reserve official stated that last month's rate cut decision was a "close call" because the current economic outlook is vastly different from when the Fed began cutting rates four months ago. St. Louis Fed President Mester noted that by the time of the last meeting, the risk of inflation rate hovering between 2.5% and 3% had increased, and therefore she believes future rate cuts need to be more gradual. Mester had previously supported the Fed's 50-basis-point rate cut in September, but she now realizes that economic data has become stronger and inflation numbers have exceeded expectations since last September. She stated that future rate cuts should be more incremental and more conservative than her thinking in September. She mentioned that the labor market condition is good and worth close monitoring, but the Fed still faces challenges on the inflation front.
(2) Web3 Sector:
l Dar Open Network Launches DeAI Multi-Agent Framework and aiNFT to Empower Developers and NFT Holders
Dar Open Network announced the launch of two new AI frameworks: the DeAI multi-agent framework and aiNFT. DeAI is a platform designed for developers to build, deploy, and coordinate collaborative AI agents. This modular system allows users to create dedicated agents that leverage multiple large language models (LLMs) as backends, providing flexibility and high performance to meet specific application needs. Meanwhile, aiNFT is an innovative tool aimed at helping Non-Fungible Token (NFT) holders fully unleash the potential of their digital assets. Through aiNFT, users can launch customized AI agents for their owned NFTs, imbuing these assets with unique personalities and capabilities, and enabling dynamic interactions with the users.
3. Hot Narratives
l Aiccelerate DAO Draws Attention, Multiple AI Tokens on Exchanges See Strong Rebounds
The Aiccelerate DAO has garnered widespread attention, despite the overall sluggish performance of the Crypto and AI markets at the time. The DAO is focused on accelerating the development of decentralized, open-source AI, aiming to drive innovation and build an ecosystem that supports related projects by combining the power of AI and crypto technologies. Aiccelerate DAO has assembled a team of developers from multiple technology frameworks, planning to release a series of AI agents and tools to facilitate community collaboration. The founding team includes industry experts such as Andreessen Horowitz's co-founder Shaw. Aiccelerate DAO also plans to issue a token called AICC and manage its assets through a buyback mechanism. Although the token has not yet been officially launched, the DAO is currently fundraising with a target of 500 SOL (approximately $94,353), having already raised 378 SOL. The project's strong advisory team and community support have made it a prominent focus in the industry.
In addition, Binance also released the listing announcement of the AI concept tokens COOKIE, AIXBT and CGPT today, and then whales started hoarding them.
Affected by this news, the AI concept tokens rebounded strongly, with COOKIE, AIXBT and CGPT rising by about 65%, 27% and 49% respectively.
II. Attention Value - Hot Projects
1. Project Introduction
l $BIOS | AI | @biosphere3_ai
- A project from the Crypto Finance Technology Laboratory of the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, which draws on the popular AI town concept from last year, and has built an open-ended proxy evolution arena. On this platform, AI agents can interact, test and evolve in a dynamic game theory sandbox.
- The advantage of the project lies in its strong academic background and real-name team, which ensures the reliability of the developers. In addition, the project concept is relatively novel, and although it has been involved in the Web2 era, it still appears to be technologically reliable and complete in the Web3 environment.
- Currently, HKUST and the laboratory have not yet interacted with the project, and its relationship with the university's official is still unclear, and the high fundraising volume may lead to potential negative impacts.
III. Attention Value - Sector Rotation
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Sector Rotation
Source: Dune, Dot Labs