Coinbase's "Bitcoin negative premium" has not improved, suggesting that the BTC rally cannot continue?

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The new US President Trump whether he will announce a crypto-friendly policy on the day of his inauguration next week, has become the focus of attention for global crypto investors. However, according to Coinbase's Bitcoin premium data, the interest of US investors in BTC does not seem to be gradually increasing, which casts an uncertainty in the BTC market analysis.

The Coinbase premium is used to measure the price difference of BTC between the US exchange Coinbase and the exchange Binance.

During the period from November to December last year, when Bitcoin soared from $70,000 to over $108,000, the "Coinbase BTC premium" increased significantly, indicating a surge in the willingness of US investors to buy; however, the current premium has been greatly reduced, and for most of the past month it has even been at a discount, reflecting the weak demand of US investors at present.

BTC's Coinbase premium. (CryptoQuant)
BTC's Coinbase premium index (CryptoQuant)

The bullish trend may have already priced in the policy benefits

Analysts believe that US investors are currently taking a wait-and-see attitude, or because the optimistic expectations of Trump's policies have already been reflected in the rally at the end of last year. In addition, the price of BTC has mostly remained in the range of $90,000 to $108,000 since December last year, lacking the momentum for further breakthroughs.

Will Trump make cryptocurrency a national policy priority?

Earlier today, reports that Trump may issue an executive order on the day of his inauguration, making cryptocurrency a national policy priority and establishing a dedicated cryptocurrency advisory committee to promote the policy development of the digital asset industry. This order may even involve the establishment of a "strategic BTC reserve" to further consolidate the US's leading position in the cryptocurrency field.

Further reading: BTC surges to $102,000! Bloomberg: Trump may issue an executive order on the day of his inauguration to make "cryptocurrency a national priority"
However, if Trump's remarks on cryptocurrency on that day are very brief or not mentioned at all, it may also be a subtle hint that he will not actively promote a crypto-friendly policy, which could potentially form a market sell-off.

But regardless of the outcome, it can be expected that the volatility of the cryptocurrency market next week is likely to be amplified, and investors should be cautious about the risks.

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Disclaimer: The content above is only the author's opinion which does not represent any position of Followin, and is not intended as, and shall not be understood or construed as, investment advice from Followin.
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