Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.5 trillion, with BTC accounting for 56.43%, which is $1.98 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $208 billion, an increase of 1.04% in the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 66.22%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price at $102,089; ETH has also shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the current price at $3,423.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have increased in value, while a few have decreased. XDC has increased by 45.78% in the last 7 days, FARTCOIN has increased by 56.21%, XRP has increased by 42.37%, and MORPHO has increased by 36.97%.

This week, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.484 billion, and the net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $205 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on January 17 was 75 (higher than the previous week), and the sentiment for the past 7 days has been "Greed".

Market Forecast: This week, the market is expected to be significantly affected by the US CPI data and the upcoming inauguration of former President Trump, with the continued growth of stablecoins, large inflows into US spot ETFs, and a significant overall market rally. The AI sector is expected to rebound sharply in the first half of the week and then experience a correction in the second half. Next week, the market is expected to experience significant volatility due to the policies of the new administration, so position management is recommended. This week, "pre-ETF" related cryptocurrencies can be monitored.

Understanding the Present

Reviewing the Week's Major Events

1. On January 12, according to Glassnode data, the trend of Bitcoin ownership is undergoing a significant transformation. The proportion of Bitcoin held by new investors (addresses with less than three months of holding time) has risen sharply, currently accounting for 49.6% of the network's liquidity. New capital is increasingly participating in the market, although experienced investors are reallocating their holdings.

2. On January 12, FTX creditor representative Sunil disclosed the "Preliminary Distribution Timeline for FTX Repayment Plan": Creditors with claims under $50,000 are expected to receive approximately $120 million in compensation; FTX requires creditors to complete the pre-distribution requirements (claim registration) by January 20 to ensure participation in the initial distribution, and repayment is not expected to begin before this date; the first repayment is expected to begin on February 25 and may continue until March 4. This timeline provides creditors with clear guidance to timely meet FTX's requirements and receive compensation smoothly.

3. On January 13, according to CloverPool data, the Bitcoin mining difficulty reached a new all-time high of 110.45 T at block height 878,976, with an upward adjustment of 0.61%. The current network's 7-day average hashrate is 776.91 EH/s, and the next difficulty is predicted to increase by 0.70% to 111.22 T.

4. On January 14, according to CoinPost, the Japanese listed company Remixpoint has increased its Bitcoin holdings by 33.34 BTC, worth approximately 500 million yen, bringing its total Bitcoin holdings to 333.189 BTC, with a total value of approximately 4.89 billion yen.

5. On January 15, according to Yonhap News Agency, the South Korean authorities have arrested South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol.

6. On January 15, the US non-seasonally adjusted CPI year-on-year rose to 2.9% in December, the third consecutive month of rebound, reaching a new high since July 2024, in line with market expectations, compared to the previous value of 2.7%.

7. On January 16, according to market news, Nasdaq has submitted a 19B-4 filing application for a Canary Litecoin ETF, initiating the regulatory review process.

8. On January 17, Tether launched the cross-chain US dollar stablecoin USDT0, aiming to expand USDT to new blockchains and provide a seamless user and developer experience, while maintaining a 1:1 peg with USDT on Ethereum. USDT0 is built using the LayerZero OFT standard for deploying and transferring assets on new chains.

9. On January 17, according to official information, the cryptocurrency wallet Phantom announced the completion of a $150 million Series C financing round at a $3 billion valuation, co-led by Sequoia Capital and Paradigm, with participation from a16z and Variant.

Macroeconomic

1. On January 15, according to The Block, outgoing US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that the SEC "has never said" that Bitcoin and Ethereum are securities, and neither he nor former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton had said that Bitcoin is a security.

2. On January 16, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has settled with the crypto lending platform Plutus Lending, which paid a $1.65 million civil penalty. The SEC stated that Plutus operated under the name Abra, offering a retail crypto asset lending product called Abra Earn, which was not registered with the agency.

3. On January 16, according to CME's "Fed Watch" data, following the release of the US CPI data last night, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March has slightly increased to 28.2%, up from 23.2% the previous day. However, the probability of no rate cut in March remains high at 71%.

4. On January 16, according to CoinDesk, investors are focusing on former President Trump's inauguration on January 20, which could be a key catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices. However, on January 24, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates. According to analyst Michael Kramer's chart shared on X platform, the market currently expects a 90% probability of a rate hike on January 24.

5. On January 16, according to the Financial Times, pension funds are experimenting with Bitcoin purchases. Pension funds in Wisconsin and Michigan have become among the largest holders of US stock market funds focused on cryptocurrencies, and some pension fund managers in the UK and Australia have also made small allocations to Bitcoin through funds or derivatives in recent months.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of January 13 to January 17, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $1.484 billion; as of January 17, GBTC (Grayscale) has a total outflow of $21.608 billion, currently holding $21.295 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $58.12 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin spot ETFs is $121.722 billion.

The net inflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $205 million.

Envisioning the Future

Event Preview

1. CoinDesk will host Consensus Hong Kong from February 18 to 20, 2025 in Hong Kong.

Project Progress

1. GraFun has launched a new token issuance mechanism called Alpha Launch, and the first use case using this mechanism is the BNB Chain AI agent token BAD Coin, which is planned to be listed on GraFun on January 20, 2025.

2. Pump Science has released a roadmap update, stating that on January 25, 2025, they will conduct mouse experiments on Rifampicin (RIF) and Urolithin A (URO); on February 25, they will collaborate with VitaDAO to launch new compounds; on March 25, they will open supplement pre-orders and launch the market; and on April 25, they will conduct human trials.

3. The Telegram game platform Catton AI, powered by AI, will launch its token CATTON on the BNB Chain on January 26, 2025. Catton AI will integrate the Wise Monkey IP and launch smart AI NPCs. 50% of the total CATTON supply will be used for ecosystem airdrops, with 37% allocated to MONKY holders, 10% to Catton AI players, 2% to FLOKI holders, and 1% to ApeCoin DookeyDash players.

Important Events

1. Rostin Behnam, the Chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will step down from his position as CFTC Chairman on January 20. In his final public speech, Behnam stated that cryptocurrencies have dominated every quarter of his tenure, and in the absence of federal legislation, concerns about customer protection, the growing number of fraud and market abuse incidents, broader market resilience, and even financial stability have been escalating.

2. The inauguration of former President Trump as the President of the United States is scheduled for January 20, 2025.

3. Gary Gensler, the Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will step down on January 20, 2025;

4. A U.S. judge has postponed the CFTC vs. Gemini case to January 21, with the original trial date being January 13. This case stems from the CFTC's 2022 allegations that Gemini provided false or misleading statements to the CFTC when applying to offer Bitcoin futures contracts in 2017;

5. Asset management firm Calamos Investments will launch a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) called CBOJ, which will have 100% downside protection. The CBOJ ETF will be listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on January 22, and the fund will combine U.S. Treasuries with options linked to the CBOE Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index to protect against Bitcoin price volatility.

Token Unlocks

1. Bittensor (TAO) will unlock 216,000 tokens on January 21, worth approximately $104 million, representing 1.03% of the circulating supply;

2. Immutable (IMX) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on January 24, worth approximately $34.39 million, representing 1.23% of the circulating supply;

3. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on January 25, worth approximately $20.95 million, representing 1.95% of the circulating supply.