美联储1月降息25基点的概率小幅升至2.7%

Odaily reports that according to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 97.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has slightly increased to 2.7%.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has slightly increased to 2.7%.

Odaily reports that the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, and the market expects the bank to cut rates at that time. TD Securities foreign exchange analysts said that since the data is broadly in line with or weaker than the European Central Bank's December forecast, this meeting should directly cut rates by 25 basis points. The short-term market dynamics reflect the tightness of positions and valuations, and we believe this will provide a good entry point for re-engaging in new US dollar long positions. (Gold Ten)

TD Securities: ECB expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week

Odaily reported that according to market news, traders have increased their bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, fully pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut this year. (Gold Ten)

Market News: Traders increase bets on Fed rate cuts, fully pricing in a 50 basis point cut this year

Odaily星球日报 reports that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink shared his views on U.S. interest rates, stating that while a rate cut may be possible in the near term, the Federal Reserve may also raise rates if the economy continues to perform strongly. Fink acknowledged in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the possibility of rate hikes after next year is high, but he emphasized that this is not his primary forecast. He highlighted several key factors that could lead to persistent inflation, such as labor shortages and wage increases. While wage increases are often seen as beneficial for workers, Fink pointed out that they could also exacerbate inflationary pressures. He further noted that material shortages, particularly in industries related to large-scale infrastructure and energy transitions, could exacerbate these inflationary trends. He also discussed the bond market, stating that the yield curve has normalized after a period of inversion caused by high inflation. However, he warned that future inflation expectations could lead to a further steepening of the yield curve. Globally, Fink expressed concerns about rising deficits and debt levels, noting that these factors could push up financing costs and increase long-term bond yields. Overall, Fink painted a picture of a strong economy, citing robust corporate earnings and optimistic labor market data. While he expects the Federal Reserve not to cut rates immediately, he stated that further data in the coming months will be crucial in determining whether the central bank will raise rates again.

The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January has slightly increased to 2.7%.

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