Author: Nancy Lubale, CoinTelegraph; Translator: Tong Deng, Jinse Finance
Since first breaking through the $90,000 mark on November 19, the price of Bitcoin has been consolidating between $91,500 and $106,500.
But according to several technical and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin's consolidation may be nearing its end. The key remaining question is when Bitcoin will break out of the consolidation.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Bitcoin Price Trend: Currently Ranging
One crypto analyst suggests that Bitcoin may continue to consolidate in the current range for some time, especially after the massive crypto liquidation triggered by US President Donald Trump's tariff threats and concerns over a trade war.
In his analysis on February 5, Rekt Capital stated that although Bitcoin retested $101,000 on February 3, BTC failed to "turn the daily close into a new support." He added:
"BTC may range between $98,300 and $101,000 for now."
BTC/USD daily candle chart. Source: Rekt Capital
For independent analyst Arjantit, Bitcoin's current consolidation cycle may last until the end of February.
Arjantit stated:
Bitcoin price is consolidating after a 15-week rally (+105%).
As long as BTC/USD stays above $90,000, its daily structure will remain strong.
However, a drop below $90,000 could be a "buying opportunity."
The consolidation cycle may end by the end of February, after which BTC will rebound to $120,000.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Artjantit
BTC Demand Has Not Yet Peaked
As BTC price broke above $100,000, many market participants expected investor exposure to Bitcoin to increase. However, data shows that new demand is still "significantly lower" than during previous cycle peaks.
Glassnode described the current BTC price trend as an "atypical market cycle," and its latest Week On Chain report noted:
At the 2017 all-time high, Bitcoin's new demand was 26%, while in the 2021 bull cycle peak it was 32%.
Currently, at the new all-time high of $109,000, new demand is 23%.
Glassnode added:
[T]he new demand for BTC is primarily coming from large entities, rather than small retail entities.
Bitcoin realized HODL ratio. Source: Glassnode
Therefore, continued new demand from small businesses may be needed to end the current consolidation period.
Meanwhile, Google Trends also shows that social interest has declined compared to previous cycles:
Bitcoin search volume has not yet reached the levels seen during the 2021 bull market.
Bitcoin interest over time. Source: Google Trends
Once investor interest heats up again, Bitcoin may break out of the consolidation phase.
Bitcoin Price Breakout Imminent - Bollinger Bands
Bitcoin volatility indicators suggest that the consolidation in Bitcoin price is a precursor to a major breakout.
Key points:
The tightening of the Bollinger Bands suggests a breakout may be very close.
The daily Bollinger Band width is extremely oversold, touching the lower green line.
The width of the Bollinger Bands is currently narrower than when Bitcoin price was $68,000 in November 2024.
BTC/USD subsequently rallied 46% from $67,300 on November 5 to $99,317 on November 22.
This indicator was similarly tight in June 2024 and January 2024, preceding BTC price rallies of 31% and 19%, respectively.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
If history repeats itself, Bitcoin price could break out of the current range in the coming days or weeks.
