Author: BITWU.ETH

A month ago, the Trump token $Trump caused a sensation, with 100x profits taking many small-time traders to the A9 hall of fame; yesterday, CZ @cz_binance started shilling $TST, causing the Binance Chain to thrive again, with a 1500% increase in a single day, allowing many to profit handsomely once more;

Behind the prosperity, there is more anxiety, and the reality is that many people actually didn't get the results, or lost money instead, and when looking at Twitter, they only see those who made huge gains, further deepening their self-doubt;

Countless people sigh in despair: Am I really not suited for this circle?

In the past month, the industry voice we've heard the most in the market is:

The blockchain is the true land of wealth explosion, the blockchain is where you can make the most money, and if you can't make money on the blockchain or don't have the ability to make money on the blockchain, you are a representative of the classical crypto circle, and an eliminated object and Loser;

I agree with this view to some extent, as the blockchain is indeed the concentrated place of wealth explosion at the moment, and if you have the talent to trade better on the blockchain, this is certainly the best opportunity. However, if you don't have very good perception and earning ability, you can try to learn and research, research in depth, even forgoing sleep, such as the "GMGN: From 0 to 10 Million USD Meme Operation Guide" published by @haze0x

Entry link: https://drive.google.com/file/d/11Rk-fr_AAfPSVtV8gCgOpsi2GpNI23uj/view

Materials like this are very good; after learning, try a small amount, and you can basically see your talent and ability!

Of course, the more likely possibility is that through in-depth research and learning, you find that you are still not suitable for the blockchain, does that mean you have no chance at all?

So, I also hope that everyone will think carefully about the following questions:

1. Is the blockchain really suitable for everyone?

2. As an ordinary person who cannot get opportunities on the blockchain, how can you get value in the circle?

3. Is there a universal track suitable for people in the circle?

I. I actually agree with half of this view:

Everything needs to be treated according to the symptoms -

I agree very much, because this wave of opportunities on the blockchain is indeed a rare and precious opportunity, and I also admire friends like @0xSunNFT @yuyue_chris @EnHeng456 who are smart, down-to-earth and full of courage. I said a long time ago that I am very happy to see them make money, I don't know if you understand this feeling, the opportunities in the industry are constantly creating new opportunities, allowing new entrants to find opportunities, rapid iteration not only eliminates the solidified hierarchy, but also allows outsiders to see the opportunities here, and it is not exclusive to the old-timers or resource owners. Compared to most WEB2 industries, the fairness of WEB3 lies here, as long as you work hard and have the courage, the opportunity is here; this will make more new people fall in love with this circle;

The half I don't quite agree with is that if you don't have the ability to make money on the chain, you will be eliminated as a representative of the classical generation and have no more hope. There is a bit of bias here, first, I feel that there is still hope, a calm mentality to find your own path or to make money slowly is also a way, the crypto circle is not only PVP but also has the investment law of making friends over time, we cannot deny it; second, we cannot only talk about making money on the chain, but not talk about whether we as individuals are suitable for PVP on the chain. I feel that PVP on the chain is an extremely difficult task that urgently requires talent, not everyone is suitable for it, just like trading, you can't say that those who don't understand trading are eliminated just because a thousandth of the people make a lot of money. There are many opportunities to make money in WEB3, the most important point is that we need to find something that suits our talents, personality and rhythm, that's what's important!

So, I think we should all seriously consider what our personality and ability range is, and how we should walk our path to wealth:

II. If you don't take wealth seriously, wealth won't take you seriously;

I often see many people who don't think twice, just P down tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands, but they are not willing to think for even a second, what is the problem with themselves? How should they deal with this investment market?

Simply put, most people are eager for success, unwilling to get rich slowly, and even less willing to think seriously about wealth for even a second, relying on others to get rich, relying on luck to get rich, relying on information to get rich;

I call these people "cannon fodder"!

Cannon fodder do not respect wealth, and the market is so wonderful, if you don't take wealth seriously, wealth won't take you seriously either.

III. Another point to make, what is wealth?

Think carefully about what wealth really means to us?

Wealth is the real money you take away from this circle, it is the real improvement in your quality of life and circle, that's what wealth is. For example, after getting more results, you have a huge transformation in your thinking, you invest in your own health to constantly improve yourself, you meet more future business partners to work with, you experience the various lives you want to experience, this is the real accumulation and steady growth of wealth.

If you only have A9 in your account and are constantly P-ing here, this wealth is not called wealth, I think it's more appropriate to call them "chips".

IV. The real money-making rule suitable for the majority in the circle;

What I want to say next is a bottom-line thinking strategy that most people can potentially do and get results, I haven't written about it for the first time, but each time I have new insights, I hope to share with everyone:

If you're like me, a bit dumb, don't have very good trading talent, and aren't that sensitive to the chain either, then it's best to execute this strategy just like me;

Because this strategy doesn't require too much talent and intelligence, as long as ordinary people execute it firmly, they can't fail to make money:

V. The essence of the trading market and the optimal strategy for ordinary people;

We have already figured out the essence of the trading market (a unique retail-type trading market), summarized its characteristics (violent ups and downs, short bull long bear),

Based on these characteristics, I have formulated the optimal trading strategy for ordinary people (a "left hand in, right hand out" trading strategy that combines the advantages of value investing and trend investing),

Then I clarified the two key points for this trading strategy to succeed (a cyclical trading market + a constant flow of funds), and how to ensure these two points progress smoothly (scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading varieties).

There are a few important points here:

1️⃣ What is the optimal trading strategy:

I think this strategy has universality,

Because compared to the huge uncertainty of fast in and out contract leverage, and the misery of MEME's small-time traders, value investing is the only thing that can be learned, and trend investing only needs to be executed,

In simple terms, you can get results through diligence + resisting human weaknesses;

2️⃣ Why the two key points:

This is the fundamental basis for my standing in this market, a cyclical trading market + a constant flow of funds;

1) Cyclicality: This market must be cyclical, and the most friendly to everyone is that the cycle of this market is very stable, compared to the 10-year no-bull in the A-share market, the 3-4 year bull-bear alternation in the crypto circle I think will last for a quite long time, this is the cycle. A market with a stable cycle, making money is like taking candy from a baby;

2) Continuous inflow of funds: This is also very important. It is best to have good cash flow support to get through the bear market, and to have the courage to forge ahead at the bottom of the cycle. I wrote the other day: Any person who has accumulated great wealth will have a feeling in the process of making money: "I'm not really that awesome, the money just blew in, I'm just picking up the money". Personal experience tells you, more or less, that's the meaning, but don't overlook one thing - when it's your turn to pick up the money, first you have to be alive, and second you have to have the capital to pick up the money. The continuous inflow of funds is the foundation, and as for where this continuous inflow of funds comes from, everyone has their own way, but it must be there;

3️⃣ What is the fundamental basis for smooth progress?

Scientific position management + choosing Bitcoin-based trading varieties;

Position management, I recommend that everyone choose a Bitcoin-based management model. What does that mean? Please see my pinned post, Bitcoin as the industry foundation, is a higher-dimensional existence, the best embodiment of the Linda effect, so holding Bitcoin is a must-have action if the industry is stable and unshakable. If you don't have very good talent yourself, and you're always hoping to take a gamble without buying Bitcoin, forget it, you're just that leek. In fact, in the long run, 90% of people's circle earnings can't outperform Bitcoin, and most of the VC and fund earnings in the circle can't outperform Bitcoin either, so why don't you hold Bitcoin?

In addition to Bitcoin, you can keep 2-3 positions, and do some research on relatively good targets, one is to maintain relevance to the industry, so that you can quickly catch up if there is an opportunity, and the other is to satisfy your own trading desire. And once the opportunity comes, when you make tens or hundreds of times the profit, you also need to quickly exchange it back to Bitcoin, and then wait for the cycle.

With the trading strategy in place and the trading varieties in place, it's time to show your skills.

4️⃣ Judgment and experience of bull and bear cycles:

Two sentences I often say:

One is that I value the long-term investment bonus brought by patience and waiting, and the other is that I believe investment is a matter that requires the accumulation of experience and luck. If we don't have that kind of wisdom, we must strive to live through more bull markets.

Living through more bull markets, one is to encounter more opportunities that can change one's destiny and more chips to participate in; the other is to better perceive the market and make the right judgment;

First, judge the stage the market is in (I've written about the emotional theory before), so that you can have a clear idea and not be blindly, so that you can wait for the right stage to buy and sell ("dead silence" period to buy, "frenzy" period to sell), based on the "emotional theory" + "specific market situation" as the main basis, using the two dimensions of "space + time" as the criterion, fill the position before the bull market comes, and use the sell-out principle of trend investment, gradually clear the position after the bull market turns around.

Currently, the overall market is clearly not in the "frenzy" period, if you have done a good job of position management and preparation like me, the only thing you can do now is to wait patiently, waiting for the comprehensive characteristics of the bull market top signal:

1. On-chain indicators: MVRV at a high level (3~4+), NUPL entering the euphoria zone, with an extremely high proportion of floating profits;

2. Sentiment indicators: Fear and Greed Index staying above 80 for a long time, with the media and the public discussing it extensively;

3. Technical analysis: the price is far away from the long-term moving average, the weekly or monthly RSI is extremely overbought; the price hits a new high but the volume is unable to keep up or shows divergence;

4. Derivatives overheating: the leverage ratio in the futures market soaring, the long-short ratio out of balance, the funding rate staying high;

5. Mainstream capital movement: institutions or whale addresses selling in large quantities, exchange balances rising;

6. Macro and public opinion: from loose to tight, major positive news can no longer push up the coin price, and negative news can easily trigger violent fluctuations.

If at some point in the future, these signals converge or most of them appear, you need to be alert to the risk of a market correction at any time. The true absolute top can only be confirmed in hindsight, but referring to the above indicators can help you take profits in time or reduce blind chasing of highs.

The frenzy period is generally quite short, and when the above signals come, the market may enter the downward area relatively quickly, but the downward trend will not be too fast, it is generally a slow bleed, and only at the end will it enter the "dead silence" area. Before the "dead silence" period comes, we must be consistent in words and deeds, and be ruthless in the sell-out stage, if you can't sell, you will lose a lot of profits, and when the bear market comes again, you will miss the second wave without good bottom-fishing capital;

Cycling like this, as long as the layout is good, once the bull market starts, the account will enter a crazy profit mode, each bull market opening, Bitcoin will rise from the bottom at least 5-10 times, and altcoins 100 times are also very normal; and our goal, or my goal, is just to double the number of Bitcoins in a cycle, I think that's enough.

This goal is not high relative to the work I do, but the actual income is very considerable and stable for the long term.

VI. Summary

So I think if you have the talent of P Xiao Jiang, I think that's a one-in-a-million talent, you must make good use of it, and after dominating the world, you must also turn your wealth into real wealth, and you will surely become a regional overlord in the future!

If you don't, don't worry, the industry opportunities and industry difficulties are very favorable to ordinary people, you have to believe that you have made the right choice, and avoid being high-minded, arrogant, restless and anxious, these emotions are your enemies in making money;

Do the things that are beneficial to yourself, the things that suit yourself, as I said before, my wife, a person who doesn't understand any blockchain technology and on-chain operations, may be making more money than most people, in two years, her principal has already tripled in this round, mostly from Bitcoin;

Another point is that the biggest advantage of this strategy is that you won't miss out on Bitcoin's dividends in the future, Bitcoin is the most certain dividend, and it may bring you real wealth, and a peaceful destination;

After all, money will flow to the people who are at peace within!

As for how high Bitcoin can go in the future, 200,000, 500,000, or 100,000, I don't think that's important;

What's meant to come will come, burn incense, sip tea, and wait for the flowers to bloom!