Source: Talk Li Talk Outside
Many people have not waited for the Altcoin Season, but it seems they have waited for the Trump Season.
Today (the evening of March 2nd), Trump posted on Truth Social (a social media platform similar to Twitter, created by the Trump Media & Technology Group) announcing that the US will advance a crypto strategic reserve including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, ADA, etc., and ensure that the US becomes the world's crypto capital. As shown in the image below.
Affected by this news, the cryptocurrencies mentioned by Trump began to surge rapidly, for example, ADA rose by about 80% in less than an hour. At the same time, the overall sentiment in the crypto market also began to warm up, and some Altcoins followed the rise.
So, the same scenario appeared again, and many people started shouting that the bull market is here, and some KOLs also turned from bearish to bullish, continuing to recommend various Altcoin projects for people to get on board quickly.
Early this morning, I saw my friends in the group discussing this, and some even joked: "A fierce operation like a tiger, the rise and fall all depend on Trump."
So, what will happen to the market next?
First, to simply describe the market's current feeling, it's like a young person who has just had a climax and is lying on the sofa, planning to rest for a while, but suddenly an old guy rushes in and gives him another shot of a stimulant, so the young person gets high again and continues to play music and dance. At this time, the audience who originally planned to leave and some new uninformed audience rushed back to watch.
In the previous article, we mentioned three main factors that may affect the market's future trend: narrative, economy, and policy. As shown in the image below.
As for the current market, we have not seen any new narrative stories or internal innovation drivers (as for the so-called innovative OdinFun that many friends have been promoting on social media in recent days, I will not comment on it or participate in it, but this does not affect people's short-term speculation and PvP), and there are also no new macroeconomic stimuli. Therefore, today's market rise is more dependent on Trump's post, which is a kind of policy expectation. At the same time, the White House will hold the first Crypto Summit this Friday (March 7th, Eastern Time), and Trump will deliver a speech.
In short, Trump's statement today and the upcoming Crypto Summit seem to have reversed the extreme panic sentiment that has prevailed in the market in recent days.
Last year, one of the main factors that allowed BTC to rise all the way to $100,000 was the drive of ETFs and the expectation of "crypto-friendly president" Trump taking office. If the Trump administration can introduce more positive policies in the future, it is also possible to delay the so-called bull market this time, for example, extending the expectation of "the bull market ending in the first half of the year" to "the bull market ending in the second half of the year".
Especially, Trump mentioned "other valuable cryptocurrencies" in his post, which seems to have given people new imagination space. If you browse social media (such as X platform) these days, you will definitely continue to see some KOLs recommending various Altcoins that may be included in the US national reserve list. My personal advice is that if your risk preference is not that high and you have a long-term investment plan, you can just continue to hold your BTC.
Although many people have started to look bullish again, as mentioned above, we still need to pay attention to the narrative and the economy, and not get carried away by Trump's temporary market manipulation. Especially this week, it is destined to be a volatile week, because in addition to the White House's first Crypto Summit, there will also be the release of unemployment rate and non-farm data (9:30 pm Beijing time on March 7th), and the progress of the trade war also needs to be followed.
In the article a few days ago (February 28th), we mentioned Black Friday, and I wonder if we will break the Black Friday curse this week?
At the end of that article, we also mentioned: Last year, the crypto market formed a positive variable due to Trump, and now it has formed a negative variable due to Trump. Isn't it interesting? In fact, the development of the market itself is a continuous unpredictability.
And now, the market has regained positive energy due to Trump again. The market is so interesting!
But no matter how the market changes, we will definitely continue to maintain long-term optimism, but at the same time we will always have awe for the market. It's still the same old saying: the market is unpredictable, we cannot control the market, the only thing we can control is our own position.
In addition, when writing articles, I try to mark the time as much as possible, because some are in Beijing time and some are in Eastern Time. As time goes by, the information may become chaotic. Now the time difference between Beijing time and Eastern Time is 13 hours, but the daylight saving time switch will soon take place (daylight saving time is from the second Sunday of March to the first Sunday of November), and the time difference calculation will be more convenient, so I won't have to keep marking the time.
That's all for today. The images/data mentioned in the main text have been supplemented in the Talk Li Talk Outside Notion. In addition, we have sorted out a lot of methodological content last year, which has been compiled into the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" (Volume 1 + Volume 2), with a total of about 620,000 words. Readers with patience can consider reviewing and reading more content in the e-book. Click here to enter the portal>>
