Dogecoin’s last stand: Does 1U still have a chance?

Followin' the US presidential election in 2024, the price of Doge surged due to the Trump and Musk effect, but then entered a significant correction, with a decline of over 60%, consistent with the overall decline in the meme coin sector, indicating that its short-term momentum is dominated by market sentiment. In terms of institutional layout, Grayscale launched a Doge trust fund (with a management fee of 2.5%) in January 2025, which is only open to accredited investors. Although the scale is still small (around $2 million AUM), it represents a key step in Doge's transition from a meme-driven asset to an institutionally investable asset. Bitwise is also pushing for a $Doge ETF, and if approved by the SEC, it may further expand the market liquidity of Doge. However, there are currently no approved cases, and future development still needs to be observed in the changing regulatory environment. Doge has the potential for short-term speculative value and long-term application scenarios, and its price is highly correlated with Musk in the long run. X is actively exploring the integration of the payment system, and if $Doge is incorporated into the X payment system, it will be the biggest market catalyst since 2021. The future development direction will depend on three key variables: payment applications, institutional investment, and coin distribution dynamics. Doge's market value is mainly driven by narratives, which determine the future development and liquidity sources of Doge, and also affect the capital rotation patterns of institutions and retail investors. The current market narratives include: meme coin leader and POW mechanism, Musk effect and Doge's connection, payment narratives (Tesla, X Money), and institutional investment and ETF applications. Based on past price and cycles, Doge is very likely to form a relative bottom between $0.18 and $0.20 and then break through the historical high again. If I had to give a price forecast, I think the probability of reaching $1 in this cycle is the highest, just like the historical significance of $100,000 for $BTC. At the current stage, Doge still depends on market narratives and capital liquidity, and in the medium to short term, it may still maintain high volatility following the overall market. Assuming that key events such as the approval of X Money and ETF are realized as expected, Doge may truly transform from a meme coin to a "payment-type cryptocurrency".