QCP Capital: A more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter
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Odaily reported that QCP Capital said in a post on Friday that the non-farm payroll (NFP) data last Friday has brought some respite to the stock market and the cryptocurrency market, further strengthening the market's expectation of a rate cut in May. maintained consolidation around $86,000 for most of Saturday, which seems to have laid the foundation for a steady rebound this week. However, this momentum was interrupted during the low-liquidity period on Sunday by the hacking incident, in which the hacker cashed out at least $300 million from the record-breaking $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing and to retest key support levels. As the hacker has shown a willingness to cash out rather than risk further losses (the stolen assets have depreciated by 25%), holders may sell early to avoid the supply pressure from further selling by the hacker, which may exacerbate the price decline today. Over the past 24 hours, the demand for put options has further increased, reflecting the market's growing concerns about additional selling pressure. Although $80,000 is still the key support level for recently, the upside potential also seems to be limited, as the narrative of strategic reserves has been fully priced in by the market. Recent options flow suggests that a more bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter. Before the cryptocurrency market finds a new narrative, the short-term correlation between and the stock market may further strengthen. Currently, these two risk assets are trading near recent lows, and with tariff risks still present, market volatility may rise ahead of the release of key US macroeconomic data - the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday.
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