Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.85 trillion, with BTC accounting for 60.4%, which is $1.72 trillion. The stablecoin market capitalization is $227.3 billion, with a recent 7-day increase of 1.02%, of which USDT accounts for 62.98%.

This week, the price of BTC has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $85,772; ETH has also shown range-bound fluctuations, with the current price at $2,134.

CoinMarketCap shows that most of the top 200 projects have declined, with a few increases, including: S down 28.94% in 7 days, BERA down 25.49% in 7 days, AI16Z down 41.04% in 7 days, ADA up 26.88% in 7 days, and BCH up 18.46% in 7 days.

This week, the net outflow of the US Bitcoin spot ETF was $699.1 million; the net outflow of the US Ethereum spot ETF was $82.7 million.

The "Fear & Greed Index" on March 8 was 28 (higher than the previous week), with the market sentiment being 2 days of extreme fear and 5 days of fear this week.

Market Forecast: This week, the market has shown range-bound fluctuations, with the price trend being affected by macroeconomic fundamentals. Stablecoins have seen a slight increase, and the outflow of US Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs is lower than the previous week. The market is still shrouded in a panic sentiment, which is better than the previous week but still in a state of fear.

A relatively positive news is that the first Crypto Summit was held at the White House, with industry leaders attending the meeting to discuss topics such as the SEC regulatory framework and the insurance fund for compliant CEXs. The rhetoric seems more "official", indicating that the path to crypto compliance is long but there is hope. In the short term, the market will continue to maintain range-bound fluctuations until clear interest rate cuts, when liquidity will truly flow into the crypto sector.

Understanding the Present

Review of the Week's Major Events

1. On March 2, according to F2pool data, based on the current Bitcoin mining difficulty, Bitcoin price of $85,580, and electricity price of $0.06/kWh, the Bitcoin mining machines Antminer S19, MicroBT M33S+, and MicroBT M30S+ have reached the breakeven point.

2. On March 2, according to Bitrace monitoring, as of 5:00 PM on March 2, 2025, Tether and USDC issuers have frozen at least 5 Ethereum and Tron addresses related to the Bybit hacker, successfully intercepting over 760,000 USDT and USDC.

3. On March 2, Trump posted on social media that "after years of suppression by the Biden administration, the US cryptocurrency reserves will elevate the status of this critical industry, which is why my digital asset executive order directs the presidential working group to advance a cryptocurrency strategy reserve including XRP, SOL, and ADA. I will ensure that the US becomes the world capital of cryptocurrency. We are making America great again!"

4. On March 3, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong commented on social media that in terms of asset allocation for the strategic reserve, Bitcoin may be the best choice, as the successor to gold, Bitcoin has the simplest and clearest narrative. If people want more variety, a market-cap-weighted index of crypto assets can be used to maintain fairness. But just choosing Bitcoin may be the simplest.

5. On March 4, US President Trump stated that he will impose tariffs on countries that engage in currency devaluation.

6. On March 4, according to the official announcement, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) today announced that its Crypto Assets and Cyber Unit will host a series of roundtable discussions on key areas of crypto asset regulation. The series is titled "Spring Surge: Towards Crypto Regulatory Clarity", and the first roundtable "How Did We Get Here and How Do We Get Out - Defining the Securities Characteristic" will be held on March 21.

7. On March 5, the US Senate passed the Congressional Review Act (CRA) 70-27, introduced by Senator Ted Cruz and Congressman Mike Carey, to repeal the so-called "DeFi Broker Rule" - the Biden administration's last-minute attack on the crypto community, regarding the IRS "Broker Rule" involving DeFi.

8. On March 4, Aave DAO service provider Marc Zeller released a governance proposal seeking governance approval to implement the first part of the updated Aavenomics, including updating the AAVE token economics, protocol excess revenue redistribution, LEND token retirement, and updating the AAVE secondary liquidity protocol management.

9. On March 5, according to Cointelegraph, asset management firm VanEck stated that Solana's planned protocol upgrades are crucial for the long-term health of the network, but may impact validator revenue. In March, Solana validators will vote on two blockchain protocol upgrade proposals (SIMD) aimed at ensuring stakers receive rewards and adjusting the SOL inflation rate.

10. On March 6, according to ARKHAM monitoring, a wallet belonging to Trump's crypto project WLFI just sent $25 million in USDC to a separate contract, which purchased $10 million in ETH, $10 million in WBTC, and $1.5 million in MOVE.

11. On March 6, according to Arkham monitoring, Mt. Gox just transferred 166.5 Bitcoin again 6 minutes ago and conducted a transfer test to BitGo. Mt. Gox has transferred 12,000 Bitcoin to an unknown new address, worth about $1.09 billion.

12. The first White House Crypto Summit was held at 2:30 am on Saturday, March 8, with participants including executives from Coinbase, Chainlink, Exodus, and Strategy.

Macroeconomic

1. On March 4, Yuga Labs' X account posted that "the SEC has formally concluded its investigation of Yuga Labs, which has lasted over three years. This is a major victory for the NFT industry and all creators driving ecosystem development. NFTs are not securities."

2. On March 7, according to Cointelegraph, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has so far dismissed or suspended litigation and investigations against 11 crypto companies/individuals, including: Binance (February 10), Coinbase (February 21), OpenSea (February 21), Robinhood (February 24), Uniswap (February 25), Gemini (February 26), Justin Sun (February 26), ConsenSys (February 27), Kraken (March 3), Yuga Labs (March 4), and DRW (March 4).

3. On March 7, according to CME's "Fed Watch", with 12 days left until the next FOMC meeting, the probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 9%, and the probability of keeping them unchanged is 91%. The probability of the Fed cutting a cumulative 50 basis points by May is 4%, the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 45.3%, and the probability of no change is 50.7%.

4. On March 3, European stock markets generally rose, with the German DAX index up 3% intraday, the French CAC40 index and the Eurostoxx 50 index up over 1%, and the Italian FTSE MIB index up 1%.

5. On March 4, the yield on Japan's 30-year government bonds rose to 2.37%, the highest level since October 2008.

ETF

According to statistics, during the period of March 3-March 7, the net inflow of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF was $699.1 million; as of March 7, the total outflow of GBTC (Grayscale) was $22.375 billion, and it currently holds $17.02 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $49.792 billion. The total market value of the US Bitcoin Spot ETF is $100.76 billion.

The net outflow of the US Ethereum Spot ETF was $82.7 million.

Foresee the Future

Event Preview

1. Digital Asset Summit 2025 will be held from March 18 to March 20, 2025 in New York, USA;

2. Southeast Asia Blockchain Week 2025 will be held from March 30 to April 5, 2025 in Bangkok, Thailand.

3. The 2025 Hong Kong Web3 Carnival will be held from April 6 to 9, 2025 in Hall 5BCDE of the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre.

Project Progress

1. PancakeSwap announced that it will shut down its simple staking product at 8:00 on March 10, 2025, and users need to withdraw their funds before March 10, 2025;

2. The Trading Campaign launched by the AI-driven Web3 interaction platform AlphaOS and the decentralized crypto trading protocol Orca will continue until March 11, during which users can trade Orca liquidity pools through AlphaOS to earn double AlphaOS points and have a chance to receive ORCA token airdrops. AlphaOS points will be converted to future airdrop rewards after the TGE in the first half of 2025;

3. The modular blockchain network Hemi will officially launch its mainnet on March 12, 2025, aiming to unify Bitcoin and Ethereum into a super network;

4. The BNB Chain Pascal hard fork will be launched on the mainnet in mid-March, integrating the key features of the Ethereum Pectra upgrade to enhance the compatibility between BSC and Ethereum;

5. The decentralized lending platform Liquity will redeploy the repaired Liquity V2 in mid-March, and the currently deployed Liquity V2 will become a legacy protocol, with the official recommending that existing V2 users close their positions and loans;

6. The airdrop claim deadline for the Pudgy Penguins token PENGU is March 15, 2025.

Important Events

1. The US interest rate decision will be held at 2:30 am Beijing time on March 20, 2025.

2. The pre-trial hearing related to the Samourai Wallet, a Bitcoin privacy wallet, has been postponed from December 17 to March 12, 2025, a delay of 90 days, and the trial date has been set for November 3, 2025.

Token Unlocking

1. GMT (GMT) will unlock 85.97 million tokens on March 9, worth about $4.51 million, accounting for 1.43% of the circulating supply.

2. Cheelee (CHEEL) will unlock 11.85 million tokens on March 10, worth about $93.82 million, accounting for 1.18% of the circulating supply;

3. Sei (SEI) will unlock 224 million tokens on March 15, worth about $50.37 million, accounting for 2.25% of the circulating supply.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment and research center of the Hotcoin ecosystem, is dedicated to providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global crypto asset investors. We have built a three-in-one service system of "trend judgment + value mining + real-time tracking", through in-depth analysis of crypto industry trends, multi-dimensional evaluation of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly double updates of the "Hotcoin Selection" strategy live broadcast and the "Blockchain Headlines" daily news digest, to provide precise market interpretation and practical strategies for investors at different levels. Relying on advanced data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish a cognitive framework, and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, together grasping the value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The crypto currency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors fully understand these risks and invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.