火星财经消息, 美国劳工统计局将于今晚 20:30 公布 2 月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，经济学家预测在 1 月份大幅上涨之后，美国上个月的通胀可能仍处于高位，这将进一步证明美联储在抑制物价方面的进展已经停滞。有所降温的通胀数据可能会增强交易员对美联储降息的押注，目前货币市场预计今年将有三次 25 个基点的降息，相较于一周前完全定价的两次降息，市场预期已经变得更加鸽派。（金十）

<div>火星财经消息, 美国劳工统计局将于今晚 20:30 公布 2 月消费者物价指数（CPI）报告，经济学家预测在 1 月份大幅上涨之后，美国上个月的通胀可能仍处于高位，这将进一步证明美联储在抑制物价方面的进展已经停滞。有所降温的通胀数据可能会增强交易员对美联储降息的押注，目前货币市场预计今年将有三次 25 个基点的降息，相较于一周前完全定价的两次降息，市场预期已经变得更加鸽派。（金十）</div>

货币市场预计美联储今年有三次25基点的降息，预期已变更加鸽派

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight at 20:30. Economists forecast that after a significant increase in January, US inflation last month may still remain at a high level, further indicating that the Federal Reserve's progress in curbing prices has stalled. Cooler inflation data may strengthen traders' bets on the Fed's rate cuts, with the current money market expecting three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, a more dovish market expectation compared to the two rate cuts priced in a week ago. (Gold Ten)

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tonight at 20:30. Economists forecast that after a significant increase in January, US inflation last month may still remain at a high level, further indicating that the Federal Reserve's progress in curbing prices has stalled. Cooler inflation data may strengthen traders' bets on the Fed's rate cuts, with the current money market expecting three 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, compared to the two rate cuts that were fully priced in a week ago, indicating a more dovish market expectation. (Gold Ten)

Money markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year, and expectations have become more dovish

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Odaily reported that Tickmill's analyst Joseph Dahrieh stated in a report that the US CPI inflation data may cause US Treasury yields to move in either direction. Higher-than-expected CPI could boost yields and ease recent expectations of a Fed rate cut. Conversely, softer inflation data would lead to a decline in yields. He also mentioned that the potential ceasefire progress between Ukraine and Russia could help boost risk appetite. Currently, institutional surveys show that the overall and core inflation rates in the US for February are expected to decline slightly. (Jinshi)

Analyst: US CPI data could push US bond yields in either direction

The US CPI data for February will be released this Wednesday, and the market consensus expects inflation to decline slightly.

However, even if the data meets expectations (overall CPI +0.3% MoM, core +0.3%), the annualized inflation rate will still be as high as 3.9%, nearly double the Fed's target, and far from an optimistic moment.

We need to see a MoM decline to 0.2% or lower for the market to feel comfortable going long, but we need to be wary of data noise (such as fluctuations in energy prices); if the actual data turns out to be higher than expected, the market may experience another plunge.

[Viewpoint: CPI on Wednesday may cool down, but that doesn't mean the market is safe]

Next, we need to pay attention to...

Viewpoint: CPI may cool down on Wednesday, but it does not mean the market is safe

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Does the U.S. government expect an economic recession?

In 2025, the U.S. will have $9.2 trillion in debt that needs to be refinanced or repaid. Faced with this massive refinancing, the fastest way to lower interest rates may be to trigger an economic recession.

However, can the U.S. benefit from a market collapse?

Over the past two months, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by about 60 basis points. This is partly due to market expectations of reduced deficit spending in the government efficiency sector. But it is also related to increased uncertainty and the rising possibility of a U.S. economic recession.

An economic recession can almost guarantee a...

Money markets expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points three times this year, and expectations have become more dovish

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