Odaily星球日报讯 知名交易员 Eugene 表示，比特币（BTC）整体趋势仍偏向下行，高时间框架（HTF）上尚未见到足够的市场恐慌，以完成本轮周期的深度清洗。 Eugene 认为，虽然 BTC 在 76,000 美元附近有一定的支撑，甚至可能在 74,000-76,000 美元区域形成双底，但这一概率正在逐渐降低。他指出，目前所有时间框架内，比特币的上行趋势或区间已被破坏，75,000 美元是最后的重要支撑。 此外，他认为市场迟早会测试 MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 心目中的 66,000 美元心理关口，并观察市场在这一水平下的表现。同时，由于 BTC 与美股相关性较强，他预计短期内不会因特朗普、Bessent 或美联储主席鲍威尔的言论而出现反转。 Eugene 还表示，如果今晚美国 PPI 数据表现良好，并推动比特币反弹至高位 80,000 美元以上，他可能会考虑在高位做空。

Odaily星球日报讯 知名交易员 Eugene 表示，比特币（BTC）整体趋势仍偏向下行，高时间框架（HTF）上尚未见到足够的市场恐慌，以完成本轮周期的深度清洗。Eugene 认为，虽然 BTC 在 76,000 美元附近有一定的支撑，甚至可能在 74,000-76,000 美元区域形成双底，但这一概率正在逐渐降低。他指出，目前所有时间框架内，比特币的上行趋势或区间已被破坏，75,000 美元是最后的重要支撑。此外，他认为市场迟早会测试 MicroStrategy 创始人 Michael Saylor 心目中的 66,000 美元心理关口，并观察市场在这一水平下的表现。同时，由于 BTC 与美股相关性较强，他预计短期内不会因特朗普、Bessent 或美联储主席鲍威尔的言论而出现反转。Eugene 还表示，如果今晚美国 PPI 数据表现良好，并推动比特币反弹至高位 80,000 美元以上，他可能会考虑在高位做空。

交易员Eugene：比特币仍有下行空间，或测试66,000美元关键心理关口

Odaily News Report: Well-known trader Eugene stated that the overall trend of Bitcoin (BTC) is still leaning bearish, and the high time frame (HTF) has not yet seen enough market panic to complete the deep cleansing of this cycle. Eugene believes that although BTC has certain support around $76,000, and may even form a Double Botto in the $74,000-$76,000 range, the probability of this is gradually decreasing. He pointed out that in all time frames, the upward trend or range of Bitcoin has been broken, and $75,000 is the last important support. In addition, he believes that the market will eventually test the $66,000 psychological barrier in the mind of MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, and observe the market's performance at this level. At the same time, due to the strong correlation between BTC and US stocks, he expects that there will be no reversal in the short term due to the remarks of Trump, Bessent or Fed Chairman Powell. Eugene also said that if the US PPI data performs well tonight and pushes Bitcoin to rebound to above the high of $80,000, he may consider shorting at the high level.

Odaily News reports that renowned trader Eugene stated that the overall trend of Bitcoin (BTC) is still bearish, and the high time frame (HTF) has not yet seen enough market panic to complete the deep cleansing of this cycle. Eugene believes that although BTC has some support around $76,000, and may even form a <Double Botto> in the $74,000-$76,000 range, the probability of this is gradually decreasing. He pointed out that the bullish trend or range of Bitcoin has been broken in all time frames, and $75,000 is the last important support. Furthermore, he believes that the market will eventually test the $66,000 psychological level that MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor has in mind, and observe the market's performance at this level. At the same time, due to the strong correlation between BTC and US stocks, he expects that there will be no reversal in the short term due to the remarks of Trump, Bessent or Fed Chairman Powell. Eugene also said that if the US PPI data performs well tonight and pushes Bitcoin to rebound above the high of $80,000, he may consider <short> at the high level.

Trader Eugene: Bitcoin still has room to go down and may test the key psychological level of $66,000

Odaily Odaily reports that FxPro senior market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said the Bitcoin daily chart is still in a bearish mode, indicating that the selling pressure has intensified after failing to hold the 200-day moving average, which means the possibility of a pullback to the $70,000 to $74,000 range is still relatively high, and investors still need to remain vigilant. (Coindesk)

Analyst: Bitcoin is likely to fall back to $70,000-74,000, and investors need to remain vigilant

Here is the English translation, with the content inside <> not translated:

ChainCatcher reported that according to Cointelegraph, despite Bitcoin's recent 30% decline from its all-time high of $109,350 to a four-month low of $76,700 on March 11, four key indicators suggest this adjustment may have already ended. First, the current adjustment is fundamentally different from the bear market in November 2021. In the 2021 bear market, Bitcoin plummeted 41% from $69,000 to $40,560 within 60 days, while the current adjustment is more similar to the 36.5% retracement in June 2024. A true bear market requires at least a 40% decline, which has not yet been reached. Second, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined from 109.2 in early 2025 to 104, in contrast to the strong US dollar during the bear market at the end of 2021. Analysts point out that Bitcoin typically has an inverse correlation with the US dollar index, and the current weakness in the US dollar is favorable for Bitcoin's price stabilization. Third, the derivatives market data shows healthy signs. Although the price declined 19% from March 2 to 11, Bitcoin's annualized futures premium remained at 4.5%, far above the negative premium levels during the bear market in June 2022. Meanwhile, the perpetual contract funding rate is close to zero, indicating a balanced demand between longs and shorts, without the typical excessive <short> demand seen in a bear market. Fourth, market concerns are mainly focused on the potential US government shutdown on March 15 and the risk of a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector. Several companies with market caps over $150 billion have seen significant pullbacks from their highs, including Tesla (-54%), Nvidia (-34%), and TSMC (-26%). This risk sentiment has led to the short-term adjustment in Bitcoin. Additionally, early signs of a crisis in the US real estate market may accelerate the flow of capital into scarce assets. Analysts believe that the weakening US dollar, historical data showing a 30% price adjustment is insufficient to determine a bear market, the resilience of the Bitcoin derivatives market, market volatility due to the government shutdown risk, and the signs of a real estate market crisis will all support Bitcoin's return to the $90,000 level.

Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded from the lows, and market participants are closely monitoring the progress of the US government debt ceiling negotiations, as there are divisions within the Republican party on defense and immigration spending issues. If an agreement is reached, the risk asset markets, including Bitcoin, may see a positive reaction.

Analysis: Several key indicators show that Bitcoin's current round of adjustment may have ended

[Trading Moment: ETH/BTC Hits Near 5-Year Low, Bitcoin May Continue to Dominate the Market]
1. Market Observation
Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC
The ETH/BTC ratio has dropped to the lowest level since mid-2020, and economist and cryptocurrency trader Alex Kruger suggests a trading strategy: "If you still hold ETH, now might be a good time to shift to high-beta Altcoins. Even if the market declines, the losses in both cases may be quite similar, but if the market rises, you can expect to gain significantly higher returns, and then you can switch back to BTC. However, the market...

Trader Eugene: Bitcoin still has room to go down and may test the key psychological level of $66,000

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