• The historical net exchange Flow of ETH has provided important insights into investor behavior
• The ETH/USD liquidation heat map suggests where traders are most vulnerable to forced liquidations

At the current time, the price volatility of Ethereum [ETH] indicates uncertainty as on-chain indicators and transaction data reveal mixed sentiment among investors. The net exchange Flow suggests accumulation is underway, while the liquidation zones imply resistance levels that could determine the next move of ETH.

In fact, investors appear to be positioning for a potential recovery. However, key barriers need to be overcome to sustain the uptrend.

Exchange Flow and Accumulation

The historical net exchange Flow of Ethereum has provided important insights into investor behavior. For instance, from January 2021 to January 2025, ETH has gone through various cycles of inflows and outflows, reflecting the changing market sentiment.

Source: CryptoQuant

In May 2021, the net Flow peaked at 1.28K when ETH was trading around $4,000. By September 2022, the inflows had increased to -1.5 million, while the price had dropped to $1,200.

In May 2024, the net Flow had stabilized near zero, with ETH trading around $3,800. Early in 2025, the outflows increased, reaching 250K as ETH hovered around $1,800.

The history suggests that strong outflows imply accumulation, indicating that investors expect higher prices. If this trend continues, ETH could soon reach $2,000. However, a shift to inflows could signal profit-taking, potentially pulling ETH down to $1,500.

Notably, the similarity to the 2021 accumulation phase suggests the potential for a recovery if demand remains stable.

Key Levels to Watch Are...

The ETH/USD liquidation heat map provides information on where traders are most vulnerable to forced liquidations. The data reveals heavy liquidation clusters between $1,850 and $1,900, with an exposure of up to $87.62 million.

Additional clusters exist at $1,800 ($64.54 million) and $1,750 ($45.4 million). With ETH trading at $1,894.11, it appears to be facing strong resistance near $1,900.

Source: CoinGlass

If ETH can break above this level, the uptrend momentum could push it to $2,000. However, if it fails to hold above $1,850, it could trigger cascading liquidations, increasing selling pressure and pulling ETH down to $1,700.

The heat map also suggests that traders should closely monitor the $1,750-$1,800 range as a potential accumulation zone. The liquidation pattern also reflects the resistance clusters of Bitcoin, indicating a broader market relationship.

Break-Even Price Analysis and Market Direction

Finally, the Ethereum break-even price analysis as of March 14 adds another layer of market prediction. The data shows that 33.60% of ETH holders are at break-even at $1,803.02, with 48.25 million ETH.

Source: IntoTheBlock

Meanwhile, 64.54% of holders are not at break-even, with a break-even price of $1,985.53. The in-the-money positions stand at 1.86%, totaling 2.67 million ETH at $1,894.11.

With the altcoin trading near $1,894.11 at the time of writing, its price is above the break-even level but below the not-in-the-money range. If buyers fail to hold the $1,850 support, the likelihood of the price dropping to $1,800 or lower is high.

Conversely, a breakout above $1,985.53 could trigger further upside momentum towards $2,100. The significant percentage of not-in-the-money positions suggests ongoing downward pressure, in contrast with the accumulation trend in the net capital inflows. This dynamic indicates potential volatility in the short term.

In summary, the Ethereum market indicators have painted a conflicting but informative picture. The net Flow shows a strong 250K outflow, indicating investor accumulation. The liquidation data identifies the $1,900 resistance level, with safe zones near $1,800. The break-even price analysis highlights that 64.54% of traders are not in the money at $1,985.53 - a sign of potential downside risk.

If ETH can maintain support above $1,850, it may be able to break the resistance and target $2,000 or higher. However, if it fails to hold the critical levels, cascading liquidations could push the price down to $1,500.