This week marks the start of a super central bank week, as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its latest interest rate decision at Taiwan time early Thursday morning. While most expect the Fed to keep rates on hold this time, the closely watched dot plot will be closely watched. If Fed officials' projections for rate cuts this year are lower than two, it could put renewed pressure on global risk markets, so investors should be cautious about potential volatility.
According to data from the Binance spot market data, Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations in the past 12 hours, with the price rebounding from $82,456 and rising to $84,756 at 4 am this morning, but then falling back to $83,128 due to selling pressure, almost wiping out the gains of the past 24 hours.
CryptoQuant CEO: Bitcoin Bull Market Has Ended
CryptoQuant, a cryptocurrency analysis firm, CEO Ki Young Ju posted a pessimistic message on social media platform X today, believing that the Bitcoin bull market has ended:
The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended, and the price is expected to enter a bear market or range-bound phase in the next 6 to 12 months.
All on-chain data shows bearish signals, as market liquidity dries up, new whale investors are selling Bitcoin at lower prices.
He added that CryptoQuant's internal monitoring system had issued an early warning, and pointed out that the model uses on-chain indicators such as MVRV, SOPR, NUPL to calculate the trend reversal points of the 365-day moving average to determine the market cycle.
However, this view contradicts his statement a few days ago. At that time, he had just said:
"Although Bitcoin demand seems stagnant, it is still too early to declare a bear market."
This "about-face" statement has sparked heated discussion in the market, with some netizens questioning:
"Three days ago you said the bull market still exists, and three days later the situation has changed?"
Insider Whale Goes Short on BTC
In addition to the CryptoQuant CEO's remarks, the market has also been closely watching the moves of the "insider whale".
This "insider whale" previously went Longing on Bitcoin with 50x leverage on Hyperliquid, and shortly after, Trump announced that SOL, XRP, ADA, BTC and ETH would be included in the national strategic reserve, allowing him to make huge profits and become famous. The community has since dubbed him the "Hyperliquid 50x Whale" and dubbed him the "insider whale". In addition, he is also the master who single-handedly toppled Hyperliquid and left a huge bad debt, so the market is closely watching his operations.
Recently, he has re-entered a large short position on BTC, with on-chain analyst Yu Jin pointing out:
He has now gone cross margin short on Bitcoin, and this is his largest position ever, worth $520 million.
He is shorting 6,210 BTC (position value of $520 million) with 40x leverage, at an entry price of $83,898, with a liquidation price of $85,561.
This move has drawn high attention from the market, as if BTC breaks above $85,561, it could trigger a large-scale liquidation wave.
Trader: BTC May Retest $78K Before Breakout
Amid the divergent market sentiment, some traders remain relatively optimistic about Bitcoin's outlook.
Well-known trader Captain Faibik analyzed on X that:
Bitcoin may first retest $78,000 to gain liquidity, and then see an upward breakout. Once the breakout occurs, BTC could rally to $109,000 in the next few weeks (possibly by mid-April).
Another trader CrypNuevo also said that Bitcoin's liquidity is currently mainly concentrated above, meaning that the bulls have the opportunity to further drive up the price. He pointed out:
The $85,400 to $87,100 range is the main liquidity area. Bitcoin may rally to this range within the next week.
As the Fed is about to announce its interest rate decision, investors should be cautious in their participation and closely monitor market trends to cope with potential violent fluctuations.
