Odaily星球日报讯 据 CME“美联储观察”：美联储 3 月维持利率不变的概率为 100%。到 5 月维持当前利率不变的概率为 82.4%，累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 17.6%。

美联储明日凌晨维持利率不变的概率为100%

Odaily Odaily reported that according to CME&#39;s &quot;Fed Watch&quot;: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is 100%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by May is 82.4%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 25 basis points is 17.6%.

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow morning is 100%

Odaily reported that QCP posted on its official channel that last weekend, a BTC whale opened a $400 million BTC short position, which caused market volatility on Sunday. Some groups tried to force the liquidation of this 40x high-leverage position, which only requires a 2.5% price change to achieve. Despite these efforts, the position has not been liquidated and has already paid nearly $400,000 in funding fees. Although the market sentiment is rather turbulent, BTC is still holding above $80,000, showing more resilience compared to US stocks. In contrast, US stock index futures opened lower this morning, affected by heightened concerns about an economic recession. Previously, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the possibility of a recession cannot be ruled out, which is consistent with former President Trump's previous remarks. The market will focus on the release of US retail sales data tonight to determine whether the 0.9% decline in retail sales in January is an early sign of slowing consumer spending or just a correction after the strong holiday season in 2024. Due to the lack of a strong narrative driving the crypto market currently, the market focus remains on US stocks. Last week, the US CPI data came in lower than expected, temporarily easing market tensions, but the Fed is unlikely to turn dovish in the short term. As tariff risks and inflation concerns persist, the outlook for rate cuts remains uncertain. Therefore, we expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at its FOMC meeting this Wednesday. However, as the market is looking for any clues about the future direction of the Fed's policy, especially amid the uncertainty surrounding changes in Trump's policies, market volatility is expected to remain elevated.

QCP: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, and market volatility will remain at a high level

Bitcoin retreated, and the market was tense ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve meeting results.

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices both fell more than 1% about an hour before the close.

<- Cryptocurrencies and the US stock market fell together on Tuesday.
- The Federal Reserve is holding a policy meeting today, and the results will be announced tomorrow afternoon US time.
- No one currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates tomorrow, but given the recent economic and market uncertainty, investors will be watching to see if the Federal Reserve takes a more dovish stance.
After a few days of positive performance, the risk market retreated again on Tuesday, and the Federal Reserve's policy...>

The Fed’s policy is still undecided, and Bitcoin’s pullback may be a signal for investors to wait for opportunities

Odaily reports that in its latest global economic outlook, Fitch forecasts global economic growth to slow to 2.3% this year, well below trend, and also lower than 2.9% in 2024. Fitch has also revised down its US economic growth forecast from 2.1% in December last year to 1.7%, and its 2026 growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.5%. Fitch said that tariff hikes will lead to higher consumer prices in the US, reducing real wages, increasing business costs, and the surge in policy uncertainty will impact business investment. It is estimated that the tariff shock will cause a 1% rise in US near-term inflation, and believes the Fed will delay further easing until Q4 2025. We now expect the Fed to cut rates only once this year, but with the economic slowdown and tariff levels stabilizing, we expect three more rate cuts in 2026. (Jinshi)

The probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow morning is 100%

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