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Starting this Monday, or stimulated by rumors from the community that the White House intends to purchase Bitcoin with gold, BTC briefly rose to $86,639 around 8 AM today (24th), with a slight pullback before press time, currently trading at $85,879.
Currently, it cannot be confirmed whether this is true, but if the Trump administration really wants to buy Bitcoin with gold, it would likely require a series of consultations across political parties, and the progress would not be so quick. The following will first focus on the three potential market fluctuation factors that the US stock market will face this week to grasp market dynamics.
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Analyzing Key Investment Considerations for the Future Week
These three variables are: Federal Reserve (Fed) officials' talks, important economic data releases, and corporate earnings reports. These factors will collectively weave the potential direction of US stocks this week and will likely influence the cryptocurrency market.
Fed Officials' Stance, Touching Market's Sensitive Nerves
First, the market will closely watch Fed officials' views on economic, employment, inflation, interest rates, and tariff issues (three officials are expected to make comments this week). Since the Fed has recently maintained interest rates unchanged, the officials' statements will provide the market with more clues about the future monetary policy direction, especially their views on inflation prospects and the timing of rate cuts this year.
Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to start cutting rates later this year, but the specific timing remains uncertain. If the officials' remarks lean towards a hawkish tone, it may trigger market revisions to rate cut expectations, thereby putting pressure on the stock market. The FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects over 70% probability of a rate cut in June.
Additionally, Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariff measures on April 2nd. Informed sources reveal that these tariffs will target more specific targets, not universal tariffs; only countries that have not imposed tariffs on US products and have trade deficits may avoid reciprocal tariffs. This could trigger greater market concerns about a trade war rekindling. Fed officials' views on tariff issues will also be a market focus.
Economic Data Releases, Revealing the US Economic Situation
Multiple important economic data will be released this week, including the final Q4 2023 US GDP, March University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, February Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, durable goods orders, new home sales, and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value.
The most notable is the February Core PCE Price Index. As one of the key inflation indicators the Fed focuses on, changes in the Core PCE Price Index will directly affect the Fed's monetary policy decisions. The market currently expects the February Core PCE Price Index annual growth rate to slightly slow down but remain above the Fed's 2% target. If the data exceeds expectations, it may intensify market concerns about inflationary pressures and put pressure on the stock market.
Corporate Earnings Season Begins, Examining Profit Performance
Third, US companies including Lululemon and Dollar Tree will successively release earnings reports this week. Investors will closely monitor corporate profit performance and future outlook to assess companies' operational status in the current economic environment.
Although recent market concerns about economic recession have somewhat subsided, corporate profit prospects still face uncertainty. According to FactSet data, analysts estimate that S&P 500 corporate earnings growth will slow from last year's 10.9% to 9.4% in 2025.
