Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market showed a mild rebound, with Bitcoin price fluctuating narrowly around $87,400, and Ethereum slightly pulling back to $2,070. Among mainstream cryptocurrencies, Solana (SOL) rose against the trend by 2%, reaching a daily high of $146.
As of March 26, the total crypto market value slightly increased by 0.4% to $2.87 trillion, with the Fear & Greed Index dropping to 34, indicating investors remain cautious.
GameStop Enters Bitcoin
Notably, the former "Wall Street meme" stock and game retailer GameStop officially announced on the 25th that the board unanimously approved a resolution to include Bitcoin in its balance sheet reserves, driving a 7% surge in after-hours trading, with the stock price rising to $27.19.
This decision had been hinted at earlier: two months ago, after a photo of GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen meeting with BTC bull Michael Saylor surfaced, its major shareholder Strive Asset Management publicly called for the company to emulate MicroStrategy's bitcoin holding strategy. Strive's CEO Matt Cole stated: "We believe GameStop can improve its financial situation by purchasing Bitcoin, which is a strategic allocation".
BlockTempo adds: Michael Saylor also congratulated GameStop on joining the Bitcoin ranks this morning.
Is BTC Breaking Out of Adjustment?
On-chain data also reveals new trends in capital flow. CryptoQuant data shows that despite Bitcoin's stable price movement, on-chain data reveals key signals:
- Institutional Fund Migration: In the past 24 hours, 17 BTC transfers exceeding $100 million occurred, with total on-chain transfer volume surging 268%, reaching a three-month high.
- Exchange Flows: Coinbase showed a maximum positive premium of 0.3%, while BTC exchange reserves decreased by 1%, with about 12,000 bitcoins flowing into cold wallets. This "low volatility, high circulation" trend suggests institutional investors may be conducting large-scale asset custody transfers.
- Derivatives Market Balance: Perpetual contract funding rates returned to the neutral 0.01% range, with options volatility surface showing put/call ratio (PCR) dropping to 0.85, indicating a slight increase in bullish sentiment.
Notably, Bitcoin's Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has fallen from 0.68 last week to 0.55, indicating that some short-term holders are starting to take profits. glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC has counter-intuitively increased by 12, suggesting whales are quietly accumulating.
Hani Abuagla, Senior Analyst at XTB MENA, believes Bitcoin is emerging from the second deepest adjustment in this cycle, and if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations and trade policy ease, there's still a possibility of breaking the $100,000 mark this spring.
Macro Variables: PCE Data Becomes Crucial Touchstone
The US February core PCE Price Index to be released this Friday (March 28) may become the key variable breaking market equilibrium. As the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, the market expects the core PCE year-on-year growth rate to slightly increase from 1.6% in January to 2.7%. If the data exceeds expectations, it could further delay market expectations for rate cuts.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders' expectations for the Fed's rate cuts this year have narrowed to 50-75 basis points, with the first rate cut potentially delayed to the third quarter. If PCE data reinforces the "inflation stickiness" narrative, US bond yields may rise again, and a stronger US dollar could short-term suppress risk assets. In the current market context, subtle inflation data fluctuations may indirectly affect the crypto market's directional choice by changing market liquidity expectations.
TradingView analysts suggest that for short-term traders, attention should be paid to the breakthrough direction of Bitcoin's support level at $87,000 and resistance level at $90,000, combined with option volatility strategies with low IV. For medium to long-term holders, the on-chain MVRV ratio (1.98) remains below the historical bull market peak (3.5), and the address distribution indicator shows a healthy chip structure, making staged entry during pullbacks a viable option.
