PANews reported on March 31 that according to Jinshi, Goldman Sachs significantly raised its expectations for U.S. tariffs in 2025 in a research report early this morning, warning that escalating trade tensions could severely impact economic growth, inflation, and employment. The firm currently expects the average U.S. tariff rate in 2025 to rise by 15 percentage points, up from the previous baseline of 10 percentage points. The main reason for the increase is the anticipated comprehensive "reciprocal tariff" to be announced by Trump on April 2, which will impose an average 15% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, with the average actual tariff impact expected to increase by 9 percentage points.

Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. core PCE inflation forecast for the end of 2025 by 0.5 percentage points to 3.5%, citing the impact of rising import costs. The fourth-quarter GDP growth rate is expected to slow to 1.0%, a downward revision of 0.5 percentage points from previous expectations, with the unemployment rate projected to rise to 4.5% by year-end. The firm increased the probability of a U.S. economic recession within 12 months to 35%, citing weak consumer and business sentiment and indications that policymakers may be more willing to accept short-term economic pain to pursue broader policy goals. As real income growth has slowed, the economy may be entering a more fragile phase, with sentiment and policy risks dragging on the economy more significantly than in recent years.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in July, September, and November.