Master Chen's Hot Topic:
At the end of the first quarter, most friends were hoping that the market could bring a big news to boost Altcoins, but let's not talk about the result. Today is April Fool's Day and the first day of the second quarter. Gold prices are still rising, and BTC is still holding steady, as Master Chen has always been bullish on BTC.
However, except for BTC, Master Chen is too lazy to touch other coins. The reason is the lingering shadow of the US decline. The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates, and the tariff policy is changing faster than turning pages.
So in the second quarter, Master Chen's plan is to not move or trade spot. Of course, if BTC has a big drop to over 10,000 points, I would still be tempted to intervene in advance. But we must respect the market, believe in cycles, and go with the trend!
The current BTC is not about market cap, but poor liquidity. When those long-term holding whales start to accumulate, the emotions of short-term traders like us can drive the price up and down. So now, the market is driven entirely by events.
US stocks and BTC are different, but the general direction is similar. The key is whether these events can activate liquidity. If they can, there might be a reversal; if not, it's just a rebound, a fleeting moment.
Additionally, Nasdaq opened sharply lower last night, but MSTR opened low and closed high. This is because they made a big move on X, saying they recently bought over 20,000 BTC.
Once this news came out, the market started to get excited, and BTC directly rebounded during the US trading session. So don't think BTC didn't fall with US stocks last night; it was actually following MSTR's stock price.
In the latter half of the night, BTC dropped from 83,850 to around 82,300 this morning. Why? It's simple. MSTR closed down 0.39% on Monday, and once it dropped, the direction was set. After rebounding in the first half of the night, it pulled back in the latter half and morning.
Why did it stabilize at 82,300? Because MSTR didn't drop much, just 0.39%. BTC's support point below 83,000 is around 82,400, so it held when it pulled back to this area in the morning.
If MSTR had dropped 3% or more, BTC would likely have broken 82,000 during the day. With a small drop, it won't fall much during the day. The drop in the latter half of the night is almost done, and it probably won't create a new low during the day.
As for tonight? First, on the news front, we need to be prepared for both scenarios. No one dares to look at just one side. BTC has already reached the 0.618 retracement level this morning, and last night's rebound, while looking fierce, only reached a high of 83,850.
So no matter how it fluctuates, shorting won't trap you. But if you get itchy and chase long after seeing a rebound, it's risky. Quick up and quick down can easily trap you near the high point.
Master Chen's Trend Analysis:
Resistance Levels Reference:
First Resistance: 84,000
Second Resistance: 83,500
Support Levels Reference:
First Support: 82,200
Second Support: 81,500
Today's Recommendation:
Currently stabilizing in the 82,000 to 82,200 range, we can expect a short-term rebound and test the first resistance level. If adjustment occurs at the first resistance of 83.5K, pay attention to whether the adjustment is reasonable and be wary of a large bearish candle.
The current important range is 82 to 82.2K. If it breaks below this range again, it may trigger disappointing selling and accelerate the decline. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on this range.
If the first support breaks with a lower shadow, and becomes resistance after breaking, do not set it as a short-term bottom to chase long. At this time point, holding 82K can maintain the short-term upward trend line rebound view.
If the rebound is successful, consider adjusting positions in the first resistance area. After shorting, pay attention to the candlestick pattern on the upward trend line to find another rebound opportunity.
4.1 Master Chen's Wave Trading Preparation:
Long Entry Reference: Not recommended at the moment
Short Entry Reference: Light short at 84,000-84,500 range, Target: 82,200-81,500
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