On April 2, 2025, a critical moment for global financial markets is set, with US President Trump expected to announce corresponding tariff measures on Wednesday at 3 PM (3:00 AM Beijing time the next day) in the White House Rose Garden. Due to concerns about the tariff hammer falling, US stocks plummeted on March 28, with tech stocks leading the decline. The seven tech giants (including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.) saw their market value evaporate by approximately $505 billion, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 2.95%. This marks the largest single-day decline since the US stock market crash on March 10, signaling a dramatic adjustment at the end of the first quarter of 2025. Transmitted to the crypto market, BTC dropped from $84,000 on the afternoon of March 29 to $81,644 in 8 hours, a decline of over 3%. It rebounded to $83,536 on March 30 at 18:00 but failed to maintain its gains, falling to $81,565 by 6:00 on March 31. The total crypto market capitalization dropped from a peak of $3.9 trillion to $2.9 trillion, a 25% decline, with trading volume shrinking from $126 billion after the November 5 election to $35 billion, a contraction of about 70%. [Rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning while translating to English]

@CryptosLaowai

BTC continues a short-term downward trend, with a false breakout at the 83,000 resistance level on the 4-hour chart to lure more buyers, which has now fallen back. In the short term, it is expected to drop to 79.5 to form the first bottom, and then rebound after the tariff announcement on Wednesday, making people think it should rise, and then form a bottom within the bottom at 78k. Refer to the chart below.

@Guilin_Chen_

1. A channel is a very weak structure, and its existence is to be broken, which is my experience;

2. If the drop from 109,000 to 76,000 is seen as the first stage of the decline, I believe the rebound from 76,000 to now is not yet complete, as shown in the chart:

3. Consecutive downward movements create a need for technical indicator repair.

Subjective speculation:

1. Currently, the focus is on inflation and expected recession due to tariffs, rather than an actual recession. As I mentioned in a previous post, observe the price performance before the "shoe drops" on April 2nd, and look for opportunities to take contrarian positions when emotions and prices reach a critical point;

2. Fact 1: The market is now undergoing a long-short conversion, with daily moving averages turning downward, forming a bearish arrangement of MA30, MA60, and MA120. From both technical and macroeconomic perspectives, there is no possibility of a bullish reversal. Fact 2: If this adjustment is for the large-scale upward movement from 15,476 to 109,000, the adjustment level will be significant, and large adjustments will inevitably involve back-and-forth movements, not a straight downward trend. So, no reversal does not mean no rebound;

3. Distribution hypothesis: With insufficient downstream funds and a small amount of funds controlling the market trend, the cost of main funds controlling the market becomes lower. Back-and-forth movements help raise the average selling price for main funds. Altcoins can lie flat and die, weakly distributing, but BTC, as a high-quality asset, has the confidence to sell at high levels.

@biupa

There are two possible scenarios going forward.

The first is to explore lower than 81,200, allowing indicators to fully resonate, confirming a major bottom. The second is to start rebounding here, using 81,200 as the bottom (although not completely strong resonance, there are still bottom-forming phenomena).

Considering the news, I believe the tariff conclusion on April 2nd will basically determine the direction (final drop vs. bottom rebound). Given that this is the first time the Acc indicator has turned green since March 11th, it is not suitable to be completely out of the market.

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