JPMorgan Chase raises its forecast for a global recession this year to 60%

On April 4, Bruce Kassman, chief economist at JPMorgan, stated that if tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on U.S. trading partners continue, they could push the U.S. and global economy into a recession by 2025. Kassman said in a note on Thursday: "The risk of a global economic recession this year has increased from 40% to 60%." He described the tariffs as the largest tax increase on U.S. households and businesses since 1968. He also noted that the impact of this tax increase is likely to be amplified through retaliation, declining business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions. (Jinshi)