Bitcoin's price is stuck in a narrow range, with the last transaction over 90,000 USD occurring on March 7. At the end of last year, Bitcoin surpassed the 100,000 USD mark, but then the price quickly dropped. Since then, Bitcoin has continued on a downward trend, even falling below 80,000 USD.
Market difficulties were further increased by President Trump's customs announcement, which put pressure on the cryptocurrency space, negatively affecting most cryptocurrencies along with Bitcoin. According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin's Bull market appears to have ended based on on-chain data analysis.
An important indicator is Realized Cap, which measures the actual capital entering the market by tracking when BTC is bought (into wallets) and sold (out of wallets). When selling pressure is high, even large transactions cannot move the price. There are too many sellers. For example, when Bitcoin was trading near 100,000 USD, the market witnessed large volumes, but the price barely moved.
When Realized Cap increases but Market Cap (based on the latest transaction price) remains the same or decreases, it indicates capital is flowing in, but the price is not responding—this is a sign of price decline. Currently, this is exactly the present situation.
Conversely, if small new capital pushes prices up, that is a bull market. But currently, even large capital is not enough to lift Bitcoin's price, indicating a bear market. History shows that market reversals actually require at least six months, so a quick recovery is not feasible.
In summary: when small capital drives prices up, that is a Bull market. When large capital cannot push prices up, that is a Bear market. Current data clearly shows the latter. Selling pressure may decrease at any time, but history shows that true reversals actually require at least six months—so a short-term recovery is not feasible.
