On April 7, Goldman Sachs adjusted its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, believing that the risk of further policy easing is higher if an economic recession hits. Goldman Sachs now expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of rate cuts in June—earlier than its previous prediction of July—as part of a preemptive easing cycle.

Under the baseline scenario assuming the United States avoids a recession, the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points three times in succession, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. However, Goldman Sachs anticipates that if the economy truly falls into a recession, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive policy response, cutting rates by approximately 200 basis points next year.

Considering the increased possibility of an economic recession, the institution's current weighted forecast shows a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, higher than the previous 105 basis points. As of the close of trading last Friday, this outlook is largely consistent with current market expectations. (Jinshi)