According to ChainCatcher, Bitfinex Alpha's latest report suggests that despite Bitcoin's relatively resilient performance last week with only a 0.65% decline, which was almost flat and far better than traditional risk assets, this is clearly just a delayed downward reaction.
Although the BTC/S&P 500 index ratio has surged to nearly 5% of its historical high, showing strong relative strength, the market has now begun selling. We believe that stocks are becoming deeply oversold, and a short-term rebound may narrow this gap in the medium term. However, short-term financing and open interest trends also indicate that Bitcoin is about to experience volatility.
Nevertheless, structurally, the foundation for excellent performance in the late second quarter seems to be forming. As macro volatility cools down, ETF fund inflows resume, and sovereign narratives re-emerge, Bitcoin may further decouple from stocks and reclaim leadership among global risk assets.
Moreover, although the Federal Reserve remains cautious amid uncertain inflation dynamics, the overall situation suggests that trade policy, rather than monetary policy, may pose a greater risk to economic momentum in the coming quarters.
