CoinEx Research’s March 2025 report pointed to a period of volatility and lack of price action in the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin initially surged to $95,000 following Trump’s announcement of a national Bitcoin reserve but has since fallen to $82,500 as investor interest has waned. The broader cryptocurrency market has been affected by macro factors. While Bitcoin has maintained its dominance, changes in liquidation and central bank easing have seen Capital flow into altcoins. Regulatory developments have brought more clarity to the market. Meanwhile, ecosystem highlights include Bittensor’s continued expansion, Sonic Network reaching $1 billion TVL, and the $12 million Hyperliquid hack raising concerns about decentralization. The $6.8 billion stablecoin inflow has indicated a potential for market stabilization, suggesting a possible positive turn in Q2 2025 if macro conditions improve.
Cryptocurrencies Reflect Market Volatility
Cryptocurrency markets have responded to growing macro uncertainty and have been volatile. Bitcoin started the month with a high of $95,000 related to Trump’s announcement of a national Bitcoin reserve. However, disappointment set in as the reserve relied on existing government holdings rather than market purchases. Bitcoin then hovered around $83,000 mid-month and fell to $81,500 on March 31. The S&P 500 has lost more than 7% from its All-Time-High, reinforcing the general cautious sentiment across asset classes.
Source: TradingView; Data as of March 31, 2025
Bitcoin Resistance and Dominance
Bitcoin is currently challenging a key resistance level at the upper boundary of a downtrend (blue). A break could see Bitcoin challenge $90,000 (red resistance), while a rejection could lead to a decline towards the $80,000 support zone.
BTCD continues to rise and is approaching the apex of a triangle consolidation pattern. The direction of the breakout from this pattern will likely dictate short-term Capital flows. If macro conditions improve in April and May, there is potential for Capital to rotate into altcoins, many of which are still selling off and ready for a recovery.
Macro and regulatory updates
The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England—all decided to leave interest rates unchanged. In addition, the Fed’s DOT plot update still predicted a 50 basis point rate cut by 2025 and announced a further slowdown in quantitative tightening, reducing the monthly run rate of government debt maturing from $25 billion to $5 billion. The Senate Banking Committee advanced a bipartisan bill to establish a formal framework for stablecoins, while the SEC formally withdrew its appeal in its four-year-long case against Ripple, ending a legal battle.
Source: FOMC; Data as of 19/03/2025
Ecosystem Highlights: TAO
Bittensor continues to expand its decentralized AI ecosystem, bolstered by the Dynamic TAO (dTAO) upgrade in February. The upgrade introduced a dual Token model, rewarding subnet builders, validators, and miners with TAO and Alpha Token . In March, investor confidence was boosted with a strategic investment from YZi Labs into Tensorplex Labs, a team focused on subnet and application development. With over 80 subnets now operational, dTAO’s long-term impact on the sustainability of the ecosystem remains to be seen. Read more in CoinEx published article “Bittensor Subnets and the New Economic Model.”
Ecosystem Highlights: Sonic Network
The Sonic ecosystem has demonstrated growth through weekly launches of new applications and integrations, such as analytics support from Nansen for increased transparency, partnerships with AlchemyPay and deBridge Finance for improved accessibility and cross- chain operability. A notable highlight from Sonic co-founder Andre Cronje was the introduction of an Algorithmic Stablecoin offering with an APR of up to 23%—a bold move that has drawn interest and skepticism, especially after historical failures in the space, notably Terra-Luna. Sonic’s TVL (Total Value Locked) hit a major milestone of $1 billion on March 27, up from $654.8 million in early February, marking a 52.7% increase. This growth highlights growing adoption and shows the potential for the ecosystem to expand in the coming months.
Hyperliquid Incident and Decentralization Concerns
In March, Hyperliquid, a decentralized Futures Contract exchange, suffered a major exploit when a trader manipulated the price of JELLY to trigger a $6 million short liquidation. This left Hyperliquid’s liquidation treasury (HLP) with an unrealized loss of $12 million as JELLY’s market value quintupled in an hour. To mitigate the damage, validators voted to delist the JELLY Futures Contract and force the settlement of the positions at a lower price, turning the potential loss into a $703,000 profit. The Hyper Foundation has pledged to compensate affected users. However, the intervention has raised concerns about the protocol’s level of decentralization. This event exposed systemic risks in Hyperliquid's overall liquidation model, resulting in a sharp decline in TVL from $439 million to $316 million.
Stablecoin Inflows and Market Outlook
March saw a net stablecoin inflow of $6.8 billion, a level historically relevant to upcoming market trends, despite weak price performance and cautious sentiment. With macro risks priced in to a large extent, this inflow suggests Capital is waiting for a bullish signal. If macro conditions stabilize and liquidation improves, April and May could mark a shift in market dynamics.
Conclusion
March 2025 has highlighted a period of volatility and consolidation in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin price movements reflecting broader macro uncertainty. While improved regulatory clarity and stablecoin inflows have pointed to potential market stabilization, investor sentiment remains cautious. Key developments, including Bittensor’s expansion, the development of the Sonic ecosystem, and Hyperliquid’s mining, have highlighted both opportunities and risks in the industry. With central banks maintaining dovish policies and the potential for liquidation to rotate into altcoins, the coming months could lay the groundwork for a market turnaround. If macro conditions improve, Q2 2025 could see renewed momentum, opening up new investment opportunities across the crypto space.About CoinEx
Established in 2017, CoinEx is a global cryptocurrency exchange designed with users in mind. Since its launch by the industry-leading mining pool ViaBTC, the platform has been one of the earliest crypto exchanges to release proof-of-reserves to protect 100% of user assets. CoinEx provides over 1300 cryptocurrencies, supported by professional-grade features and services, for its 10+ million users across 200+ countries and regions. CoinEx is also home to its native token, CET, which incentivizes user activities while empowering its ecosystem.
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