Tariffs are facing a new turning point. This morning, Trump announced that after considering negotiations with over 75 countries on trade, currency, and tariffs, he decided to implement a 90-day tariff "suspension period" with tariffs significantly reduced to 10%, but immediately imposing 125% tariffs on China. Under such a tariff policy change, US stocks and cryptocurrency markets simultaneously surged.
VX：TZ7971
BTC reached a high of $83,500, currently trading at $82,600, with a 24-hour increase of 8.23%;
Beyond BTC, ETH peaked at $1,680, currently trading at $1,670, with a 24-hour increase of 13.27%
Other mainstream Altcoins also experienced significant increases.
In the US stock market, all three major indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising 7.87%, its largest single-day gain since March 24, 2020. The S&P 500 rose 9.52%, its largest single-day gain since October 28, 2008. The Nasdaq rose 12.16%, its largest single-day gain since January 3, 2001, and the second-largest in history. The Russell 2000 rose 8.66%, its largest single-day gain since March 24, 2020;
Influenced by the overall market uptrend, the total cryptocurrency market value rapidly increased, now exceeding $2.7 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 6.2%;
In derivatives trading, liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled $589 million, with long liquidations at $214 million and short liquidations at $375 million. By cryptocurrency, BTC liquidations were $235 million, and ETH liquidations were $167 million.
Tariff suspension is just a brief respite, market wait-and-see sentiment remains heavy
Trump's latest tariff policy, while causing a short-term market rebound, has not truly eliminated uncertainty and may instead bring more chaos, potentially seen as a political expedient rather than a rational economic decision.
The government under Trump is chaotic, changing daily, with his advisors arguing among themselves. Trump seems to be playing a red light, green light game. Sometimes he puts the US economy on red light, sometimes on green light.
We're not entirely clear about Trump's wording whether it's a true suspension or just reducing tariffs to 10%. However, it's obvious that Trump has abandoned some of the worst tariff threats, which is a sustainable net positive for risk assets. What it hasn't done is eliminate uncertainty, as tariff levels seem to change daily.
The market is experiencing huge volatility, especially stocks, which reacted well to this news. But the following question is: Why are we seeing this "suspension" today, and is it really a good idea? A 90-day pause will only bring more uncertainty for those 90 days.
What's next for cryptocurrencies?
If BTC holds $80,700, it may explore between $84,000 to $87,000
BTC is breaking through its oscillation range. If the $80,700 support level holds, BTC is expected to rise, with targets potentially pointing to $84,000 or even $87,000.
Although the latest "tariff suspension" policy is a positive message temporarily alleviating some market tension, it remains a temporary relief to an ongoing issue. Just 48 hours ago, the market experienced a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" reaction to tariff suspension rumors, followed by the US announcing tariffs up to 104% on Chinese goods, undoubtedly intensifying market disappointment.
The current fundamentals remain blurry and unreliable, with the market more dependent on public greed and fear as a reverse indicator. In these unprecedented times, the market's overreaction to tariff news has become a signal worth close attention.
However, tariffs bring stagflation impact. Stagflation is typically unfavorable for traditional asset returns but beneficial for scarce commodities like gold (and possibly Bitcoin).
Currently, despite some short-term positive news alleviating market sentiment, the ongoing uncertainty of tariff issues continues to pressure the market.
Today's panic index is 39, with panic slightly eased.
Mainly influenced by Trump's 90-day tariff suspension, US stocks and cryptocurrencies surged together, with BTC touching 84,588 and ETH reaching 1,689 in the early morning. This surge was not unexpected. The previous two days saw rumors of tariff suspension, followed by denials, which felt like a smokescreen. However, the market is fragile, easily affected by negative news. Yesterday's early report emphasized that 7.5 cannot determine the bottom, but it was an excellent value position, currently with a 10% increase. $83,000 has transformed from a strong support to a strong resistance. We'll observe the breakthrough situation during the day.
