According to ChainCatcher, Polymarket prediction market data shows that the probability of the United States falling into an economic recession in 2025 has risen to 60%. The total trading volume of this prediction market has reached $2.48 million, with an expiration date of February 28, 2026.
Data indicates that the probability in this prediction market has been continuously rising since early March, gradually climbing from around 20% to the current 60%. According to market rules, the prediction will be deemed "yes" if the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declares an economic recession in 2025, or if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data shows negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters.
